382
FXUS66 KLOX 150827
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
127 AM PDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
14/1152 AM.
SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN COOLER OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARMING TREND MOVES IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
14/809 PM.
OVERALL, LATEST MODELS EXHIBIT GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY THEN AN INSIDE SLIDER WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY THEN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
FORECAST-WISE, MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WINDS,
MORE SPECIFICALLY THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. CURRENT MODELS REMAIN
VERY CONSISTENT, INDICATING MODERATE NORTHERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SO, WILL EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE USUAL SPOTS
(I-5 CORRIDOR, NORTHWESTERN ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE) AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY (WITH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
LIKELY THE STRONGEST TIME PERIOD). IN THESE AREAS, HIGH RESOLUTION
ENSEMBLES INDICATED AT LEAST A 70% CHANCE OF ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS
(40-55 MPH) AND EVEN A 20% CHANCE OF WARNING-LEVEL GUSTS (60+
MPH). ADDITIONALLY, THE CENTRAL COAST WILL LIKELY ALSO EXPERIENCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS (30-40 MPH) ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE VARIOUS WIND PRODUCTS.
OTHER THAN THE WINDS, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, THE MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN ON THE DEEP
SIDE, BUT THE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE
AREAL EXTENT OF THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS. SO, SOMEWHAT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT STRATUS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OTHER THAN ANY STRATUS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL EXPECT NEAR PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THERE WILL BE SOME
COOLING AREA-WIDE AS THE INSIDE SLIDER BRINGS IN SOME COLDER AIR
TO THE REGION.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
14/809 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THE
PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN H5 HEIGHTS. HOWEVER AT THE
SURFACE, THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES
INDICATE WEAK DIURNAL FLOW WHILE THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES
INDICATE PERSISTENT WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.
FORECAST-WISE, EITHER MODEL FORECAST INDICATES CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME
AMOUNT OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS CLOUDS EACH DAY, BUT THE AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE AT THE WHIMS OF THE SURFACE GRADIENTS. OTHER THAN
ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
WITH THIS OVERALL PATTERN, A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WITH
ITS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS, TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
COULD BE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS.
AVIATION
15/0826Z.
AT 0725Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1700 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 4900 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT MINIMUMS OFF BY ONE
CATEGORY. CIGS MAY SCATTERED AND REFORM EARLY IN THE NIGHT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS NEAR 010-012 SHOULD
RETURN 08Z FRI (+/- 2 HOURS). THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF EAST WIND
COMPONENT REACHING 7-8KTS 12Z-16Z FRIDAY.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGES
COULD BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
14/901 PM.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE INNER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST, ALL THE OUTER WATERS, AND THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO MWWLOX FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND, HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW TO GALE
FORCE LEVELS. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME HIGH-END, STRONG GALES OVER
THE WEEKEND. LOCAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BECOMING LARGE 10-15+ FOOT STEEP SEAS.
SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER SCA LEVEL SEAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE NEARSHORE CENTRAL COAST
WATERS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS FOR THE NEARSHORE CENTRAL
COAST WATERS, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH-END, STRONG GALE FORCE
LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT, WITH A
HIGH CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE L.A. COAST,
SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WEEKEND.
THESE DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS COULD CAPSIZE OR DAMAGE SMALL AND
LARGE VESSELS. MARINERS SHOULD ADJUST PLANS NOW TO REMAIN IN SAFE
HARBOR.
BEACHES
14/838 PM.
A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS, LARGE SEAS, AND MODERATELY HIGH
EVENING HIGH TIDES MAY LEAD TO HIGH SURF WITH COASTAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE ENTIRE COASTLINE. PLEASE
REFER TO CFWLOX FOR MORE DETAILS FOR YOUR AREA.
IN GENERAL, HAZARDOUS SURFING AND SWIMMING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 645-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...BLACK/LUND
BEACHES...LUND
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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