090
FXUS66 KLOX 152118
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
218 PM PDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
15/139 PM.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS COAST AND SOME VALLEYS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, AND
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, STRONGEST ON
SATURDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY IN THE DESERT.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
15/150 PM.
A 3000 FOOT MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CENTRAL COAST AT LEAST FOR A
NIGHT OR TWO DUE TO STRONG MIXING IN THE LOWER LEVELS, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. IN FACT, THERE
COULD BE SOME REVERSE CLEARING GOING ON WITH SOME COASTAL AREAS
SEEING AFTERNOON SUN EARLIER THAN THE VALLEYS.
THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE THE INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS WHICH WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE MOUNTAINS, SOUTHWEST SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY, AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WARNING LEVEL GUSTS
OF AROUND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE
VALLEY, WHILE SOME OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS COULD SEE GUSTS TO 50KT
AT TIMES.
A WARMING TREND OF 4-8 DEGREES WILL BEGIN MONDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
15/209 PM.
THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE MODELS APPEAR
TO BE UNSURE WHETHER THE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL START TO
EXPAND SOUTH OR STAY AS IS. THE BULK OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FAVORS EITHER SLIGHT WARMING OR A LEVELING OFF OF
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS A GROWING NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS THAT
SUGGEST A DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH AND COOLING TEMPS FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY INLAND. IN EITHER CASE, IMPACTS
WOULD BE MINIMAL WITH HIGHS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL IN ALL
AREAS AND JUST TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
AVIATION
15/1752Z.
AT 1712Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 3500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 5900 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT MINIMUMS OFF BY ONE
CATEGORY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS AROUND 025 EXPECTED
TO CLEAR BY 21Z FRI (+/- 1 HOUR). MVFR CIGS MOST LIKELY TO RETURN
03Z-05Z SAT. CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD ARRIVE 010-20 AND WILL GRADUALLY
RISE - REACHING 2,000FT THRESHOLD AROUND 15Z. SUBSEQUENT CLEARING
TIME SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST
WIND COMPONENT REMAINS BELOW 7 KTS.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
15/217 PM.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE INNER WATERS ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST, ALL THE OUTER WATERS, AND THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO MWWLOX FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND, HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE LEVELS TODAY, BECOMING HIGH-END, STRONG GALES OVER
THE WEEKEND. LOCAL GUSTS MAY REACH STORM FORCE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BECOMING LARGE 10-18 FOOT STEEP SEAS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH-END, STRONG GALE FORCE LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, GALE WARNING FOR
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL GOES INTO EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE NIGHT, WITH A MODERATE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE L.A. COAST, SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHEST SEAS AND STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTION. LOCALIZED GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING NEAR ANACAPA ISLAND.
THESE DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS COULD CAPSIZE OR DAMAGE SMALL AND
LARGE VESSELS. MARINERS SHOULD ADJUST PLANS NOW TO REMAIN IN SAFE
HARBOR.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 340-341-346>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONES 349-351>353. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 376>378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM
PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONE 382. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PDT SATURDAY
FOR ZONES 381-383. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 645-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK/LUND
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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