662
FXUS66 KLOX 160611
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1111 PM PDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
15/139 PM.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS COAST AND SOME VALLEYS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, AND
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, STRONGEST ON
SATURDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY IN THE DESERT.
SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)
15/736 PM.
OVERALL, LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE AN INSIDE
SLIDER DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING WINDY
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
FORECAST-WISE, THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE WINDS. AS THE INSIDE SLIDER PATTERN DEVELOPS, NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BASED ON
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF WARNING- LEVEL
GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST ON SATURDAY. SO, CURRENT SLATE OF HIGH
WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES LOOK VERY MUCH ON TRACK IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE LAXNPWLOX FOR THE LATEST
DETAILS ON THESE WIND PRODUCTS. ON MONDAY, THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES WHICH COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.
A SECONDARY CONCERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FIRE WEATHER. BASED ON
THE FORECAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, ELEVATED TO BRIEF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS INTO MONDAY. ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE ADJACENT
WESTERN FOOTHILLS, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND RED FLAG WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY. IF ANY FIRE DOES
IGNITE, IT COULD SPREAD VERY QUICKLY, GIVEN THE WIND AND HUMIDITY
CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SOME COLDER AIR FILTERING IN, THE AREAL
EXTENT OF THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM
NIGHT TO NIGHT. OTHER THAN THIS MARINE LAYER STRATUS, SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MONDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WITH LESS
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS, COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT INTERIOR AREAS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
AT THE SAME TIME.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
15/736 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, CURRENT MODELS INDICATE NOTHING TOO EXCITING IN
THE OFFING FOR THE AREA. SYNOPTICALLY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN H5 HEIGHTS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODELS DEVELOP A
WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
FORECAST-WISE, THE ABOVE SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ISSUES. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND FOR ALL
AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THIS TREND WILL REVERSE WITH
A GRADUAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED. AS FOR CLOUDS, THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
AREAL EXTENT WILL REMAIN LOW. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
16/0609Z.
AT 0517Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2200 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 5000 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPMD & KWJF TAFS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC
OF MVFR CIGS AT KSBP, KSBA, KOXR AND KCMA 12Z-17Z. VFR TRANSITION
AT SITES WITH CIGS COULD UP UP TO 2 HOURS LATER THAN FCST.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCT CONDS COULD ARRIVE AS LATE
AS 20Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
BELOW 7 KTS.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCT CONDS COULD ARRIVE AS LATE
AS 20Z.
MARINE
15/816 PM.
DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, AND COULD
CAPSIZE OR DAMAGE SMALL AND LARGE VESSELS. MARINERS SHOULD ADJUST
PLANS NOW TO REMAIN IN SAFE HARBOR.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE INNER WATERS ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST, ALL THE OUTER WATERS, AND THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO MWWLOX FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND, HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIDESPREAD, HIGH-END, STRONG
GALES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. LOCAL GUSTS MAY REACH STORM FORCE
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A 20% CHANCE OF
LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FOR SEAS, SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BECOMING LARGE 10-18 FOOT
STEEP SEAS, THEN DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, HIGH-END, STRONG
GALE FORCE LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS
WILL THEN DROP BELOW GALE FORCE AND EVEN SCA LEVELS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, THEN SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS FOR SEAS, SCA LEVEL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND POTENTIALLY LINGER IN
MONDAY EVENING.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, THE GALE WARNING
FOR THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL GOES INTO EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE NIGHT, WITH A MODERATE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE L.A. COAST, SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHEST SEAS AND STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTION. LOCALIZED GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING NEAR ANACAPA ISLAND.
BEACHES
15/825 PM.
A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS, LARGE SEAS, AND MODERATELY HIGH
EVENING HIGH TIDES MAY LEAD TO HIGH SURF WITH MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE ENTIRE COASTLINE.
PLEASE REFER TO CFWLOX FOR MORE DETAILS FOR YOUR AREA.
IN GENERAL, HAZARDOUS SURFING AND SWIMMING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 340-341-346>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONES 349-351>353. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
376>378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONE 382. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PDT SATURDAY
FOR ZONES 381-383. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONE 655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...LUND/BLACK
BEACHES...LUND
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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