993
FXUS66 KLOX 160944
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
244 AM PDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
16/233 AM.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS COAST AND SOME VALLEYS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, AND
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, STRONGEST
TODAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY IN THE DESERT.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
16/242 AM.
AN INSIDE SLIDER DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WILL
BRING WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
AS THE INSIDE SLIDER PATTERN DEVELOPS, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH DECENT
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BRING WARNING-LEVEL GUSTS TO THE
MOUNTAINS, ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY. IN ADDITION ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER TODAY DAY. PLEASE SEE LAXNPWLOX FOR ALL THE
DETAILS FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES THAT ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY SOME ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
ACROSS LA AND VTA COUNTIES.
THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE
ADJACENT WESTERN FOOTHILLS TODAY. THE REST OF THE INTERIOR WILL
SEE ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS BOTH THE ANTELOPE VLY AND THE INTERIOR SECTIONS ON MONDAY.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD SAVE FOR SOME
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS LA COUNTY AND WESTERN SBA COUNTY. THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH SOME EACH DAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LOOK FOR 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE
SBA SOUTH COAST WHERE THERE WILL BE 4 TO 6 DEGREES OF DOWNSLOPE
WARMING. INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND LESS MARINE LAYER WILL BRING
1 TO 3 DEGREES OF WARMING TO THE CSTS/VLYS ON SUNDAY, BUT THE
INTERIOR WILL COOL DUE TO NORTHERLY COOL AIR ADVECTION. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND RISING HGTS WILL WARM ALMOST ALL OF THE AREAS 3
TO 6 DEGREES ON MONDAY. THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL BE THE EXCEPTION
DUE TO THE LACK OF NORTH FLOW.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
16/242 AM.
A BROAD POS TILT LONG WAVE TROF WILL COVER MOST OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TUE THROUGH THU WITH ITS BASE DRAPED OVER SRN CA. BY FRIDAY
A WEAK HIGH HGT (586 DAM) UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF
THE STATE.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT BE AS IMPORTANT AS THE SFC PATTERN AND
HERE THERE IS SOME MDL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS (AS USUAL) MUCH
MORE STRONGLY ONSHORE THAN THE EC. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
USUALLY MORE ACCURATE EC. LOOK FOR ONLY MINIMAL MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM 2 TO 4 DEGREES EACH DAY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOSTLY 70S ACROSS
THE CSTS AND 80S IN THE VLYS (A FEW 90 OR 91 DEGREE READING ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION). ONSHORE TRENDS WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES
OFF OF CSTL/VLY TEMPS ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY BROAD COOLING ON
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
16/0933Z.
AT 0832Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2200 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 5000 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPMD & KWJF TAFS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC
OF MVFR CIGS AT KSBP, KSBA 13Z-17Z. VFR TRANSITION AT SITES WITH
CIGS COULD UP UP TO 2 HOURS LATER THAN FCST.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCT CONDS COULD ARRIVE AS LATE
AS 20Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
BELOW 7 KTS.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCT CONDS COULD ARRIVE AS LATE
AS 20Z.
MARINE
15/1111 PM.
DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, AND COULD
CAPSIZE OR DAMAGE SMALL AND LARGE VESSELS. MARINERS SHOULD ADJUST
PLANS NOW TO REMAIN IN SAFE HARBOR.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE INNER WATERS ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST, ALL THE OUTER WATERS, AND THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO MWWLOX FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND, HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIDESPREAD, HIGH-END, STRONG
GALES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. LOCAL GUSTS MAY REACH STORM FORCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A 20% CHANCE OF
LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FOR SEAS, SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BECOMING LARGE 10-18 FOOT
STEEP SEAS, THEN DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, HIGH-END, STRONG
GALE FORCE LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS
WILL THEN DROP BELOW GALE FORCE AND EVEN SCA LEVELS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, THEN SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS FOR SEAS, SCA LEVEL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND POTENTIALLY LINGER IN
MONDAY EVENING.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, THE GALE WARNING
FOR THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL GOES INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE NIGHT, WITH A MODERATE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE L.A. COAST, SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHEST SEAS AND STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTION. LOCALIZED GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR ANACAPA ISLAND.
BEACHES
15/825 PM.
A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS, LARGE SEAS, AND MODERATELY HIGH
EVENING HIGH TIDES MAY LEAD TO HIGH SURF WITH MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE ENTIRE COASTLINE.
PLEASE REFER TO CFWLOX FOR MORE DETAILS FOR YOUR AREA.
IN GENERAL, HAZARDOUS SURFING AND SWIMMING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 340-341-346>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 349-351>353. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 376>378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONES 381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONE 382. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 381-383. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...LUND/BLACK
BEACHES...LUND
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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