821
FXUS66 KLOX 161746
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1046 AM PDT SAT MAY 16 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
16/915 AM.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS COAST AND SOME VALLEYS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, AND
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, STRONGEST
TODAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
16/926 AM.
***UPDATE***
A RINSE AND REPEAT DAY TODAY AS THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS RIGHT
AROUND 4000 FEET ACROSS LA COUNTY, SLOPING DOWN TO AROUND 2500
FEET ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. THE MAIN CHANGES TODAY ARE STRONGER
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND A LITTLE EARLIER MARINE LAYER
CLEARING IN SOME AREAS AS THE INVERSION IS WEAKENING. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE, MOSTLY 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
FAR INTERIOR. AND LITTLE CHANGE INTO SUNDAY.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
AN INSIDE SLIDER DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WILL
BRING WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
AS THE INSIDE SLIDER PATTERN DEVELOPS, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH DECENT
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BRING WARNING-LEVEL GUSTS TO THE
MOUNTAINS, ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY. IN ADDITION ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER TODAY DAY. PLEASE SEE LAXNPWLOX FOR ALL THE
DETAILS FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES THAT ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY SOME ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
ACROSS LA AND VTA COUNTIES.
THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE
ADJACENT WESTERN FOOTHILLS TODAY. THE REST OF THE INTERIOR WILL
SEE ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS BOTH THE ANTELOPE VLY AND THE INTERIOR SECTIONS ON MONDAY.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD SAVE FOR SOME
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS LA COUNTY AND WESTERN SBA COUNTY. THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH SOME EACH DAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LOOK FOR 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE
SBA SOUTH COAST WHERE THERE WILL BE 4 TO 6 DEGREES OF DOWNSLOPE
WARMING. INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND LESS MARINE LAYER WILL BRING
1 TO 3 DEGREES OF WARMING TO THE CSTS/VLYS ON SUNDAY, BUT THE
INTERIOR WILL COOL DUE TO NORTHERLY COOL AIR ADVECTION. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND RISING HGTS WILL WARM ALMOST ALL OF THE AREAS 3
TO 6 DEGREES ON MONDAY. THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL BE THE EXCEPTION
DUE TO THE LACK OF NORTH FLOW.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
16/242 AM.
A BROAD POS TILT LONG WAVE TROF WILL COVER MOST OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TUE THROUGH THU WITH ITS BASE DRAPED OVER SRN CA. BY FRIDAY
A WEAK HIGH HGT (586 DAM) UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF
THE STATE.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT BE AS IMPORTANT AS THE SFC PATTERN AND
HERE THERE IS SOME MDL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS (AS USUAL) MUCH
MORE STRONGLY ONSHORE THAN THE EC. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
USUALLY MORE ACCURATE EC. LOOK FOR ONLY MINIMAL MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM 2 TO 4 DEGREES EACH DAY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOSTLY 70S ACROSS
THE CSTS AND 80S IN THE VLYS (A FEW 90 OR 91 DEGREE READING ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION). ONSHORE TRENDS WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES
OFF OF CSTL/VLY TEMPS ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY BROAD COOLING ON
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
16/1745Z.
AT 1621Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 3400 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 5300 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 C.
FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF), GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 30-40KTS. STRONGEST FOR KWJF WHERE MVFR VSBYS 3-5SM WITH
BLDU IS POSSIBLE (30-40% CHANCE) THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF FM GROUPS COULD
BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS FROM CURRENT FORECAST.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FM GROUPS COULD
BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS FROM CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE
THAT EAST WIND COMPONENT REACHES 7-8KTS FROM 10Z-16Z SUNDAY.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
16/745 AM.
DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD CAPSIZE OR DAMAGE SMALL AND LARGE VESSELS.
MARINERS SHOULD ADJUST PLANS NOW TO REMAIN IN SAFE HARBOR.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE INNER WATERS ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST, ALL THE OUTER WATERS, AND THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO MWWLOX FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND, HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIDESPREAD, HIGH-END, STRONG
GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL GUSTS MAY REACH
STORM FORCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A 20% CHANCE OF
LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FOR SEAS, SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BECOMING LARGE 10-18 FOOT
STEEP SEAS, THEN DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, HIGH-END, STRONG
GALE FORCE LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS
WILL THEN DROP BELOW GALE FORCE AND EVEN SCA LEVELS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY. AS FOR SEAS, SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, THE GALE WARNING
FOR THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL GOES INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE NIGHT, WITH A MODERATE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE L.A. COAST, SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHEST SEAS AND STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTION. LOCALIZED GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR ANACAPA ISLAND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 340-341-346>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 349-351>353. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 376>378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONES 381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONE 382. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 381-383. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK/LUND
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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