161
FXUS66 KLOX 310609
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1109 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
30/757 PM.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, BUT OTHERWISE,
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THERE WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)
30/712 PM.
LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS EVENING. CURRENT SOUNDING DATA INDICATES
AN INVERSION, BASED AROUND 900 FEET. AS FOR WINDS, NORTHERLY
WINDS, GUSTING 40-45 MPH, ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE WESTERN SANTA
YNEZ RANGE WITH GUSTS 25-40 MPH ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM, MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE WINDS.
THROUGH THE EVENING, WILL ANTICIPATE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND I-5 CORRIDOR AS SURFACE
GRADIENTS BECOMING INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE. SO, CURRENT WIND
ADVISORIES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER BENIGN. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SOME STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT AROUND THE SANTA MARIA
AND LOMPOC AREA AS WELL AS THE LA COAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IN AREAL
COVERAGE IS LOW. OTHER THAN ANY STRATUS, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, MODELS REMAIN ON THE SAME SYNOPTIC
TRACK. AT UPPER LEVELS, A TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH H5 HEIGHTS GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM DAY-TO-DAY. AS THE
SURFACE, MODERATE ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL PERSIST TO THE EAST WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING NORTHERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS. THE END RESULT
WILL BE RATHER BENIGN WEATHER. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. AS
FOR CLOUDS, WILL EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS/FOG DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING, DUE TO PERSISTENT EDDY
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE BIGHT. OTHER THAN THE STRATUS, SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, SUNDAY
WILL BE WARMER (5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) FOR ALL AREAS. ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WILL EXHIBIT A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND (DUE TO INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE) WHILE
INLAND AREAS HOVER AROUND PERSISTENCE.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
30/1242 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY LOWERING INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXACT TEMPERATURES,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAYS OVER THE INTERIOR, AS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT BETWEEN 90 AND 100 DEGREES. ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM-ISH BUT LOOK TO DROP SOME
FROM THE MONDAY PEAK AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. THE MAGNITUDE OF THAT COOLING
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE MARINE LAYER COVERAGE. BUT THIS
TREND ALSO LOOKS LOCKED IN AS ALL THE ENSEMBLES SHOW STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
UNLIKELY. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
31/0559Z.
AT 0512Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR INVERSION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD AND KWJF
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KSBP, KSBA, KOXR AND KCMA WITH A 20
PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS 12Z-16Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KSMX, KSMO, KLAX AND KLGB WITH A 20
PERCENT CHC OF NO LOW CLOUDS. IF LOW CLOUDS DO FORM ARRIVAL AND
DEPARTURE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1 HOUR.
KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF LOW CLOUDS DO ARRIVE IT COULD BE
ANY TIME 11Z-13Z AND CLEARING TIME ANY TIME 16Z-18Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST WINDS WILL STAY UNDER 8 KNOTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
30/923 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND,
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN A COMBINATION OF AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK, INITIALLY THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL, SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A 40% CHANCE OF GALE
FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A 30% CHANCE THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SCA LEVELS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A 30%
CHANCE OF GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF SCA WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCA WINDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
ALL WATERS WILL SEE CHOPPY SEAS DUE TO THE WINDS IN THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 9 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON/BJL
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...RAT/RK/KL/CC
SYNOPSIS...RAT
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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