285
FXUS66 KLOX 311446
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
746 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
SYNOPSIS
31/220 AM.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, BUT
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THERE WILL BE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
31/745 AM.
***UPDATE***
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW CLOUDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LA BASIN AND SANTA MARIA VALLEY. THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY LATE MORNING.
HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR. SFC OBS
SHOW 20 TO 30 MPH, THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE AN SLIGHT UPTICK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SUNDOWNERS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
EXPECTING WINDS TO BE WEAKER WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
(SUCH AS AT GAVIOTA). NOT WIDESPREAD OR STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A WIND ADVISORY (20% CHANCE OF ISSUANCE). OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
EXCITEMENT LEVELS ARE PRETTY LOW AS WE TRANSITION FROM MAY TO
JUNE. AT THE UPPER LEVELS WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW TODAY AND MONDAY WILL
TRANSITION TO A BENIGN HIGH HGT (585DAM) UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY. AT
THE SFC THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW BOTH TO THE EAST
AND NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL BE FAIRLY ABSENT THIS MORNING MAINLY
AFFECTING THE LA COAST AND THE WESTERN SBA COAST. THE AMOUNT OF
LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BOTH DAYS MON AND TUE AND BY TUESDAY MOST
OF THE CSTS AS WELL AS SOME LOWER VLYS WILL BE COVERED. THERE IS
NOT ENOUGH OF AN ONSHORE PUSH OR AN EDDY TO KEEP THE CLOUDS IN SO
THE LATE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS (AND EVENINGS FOR MANY AREAS)
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BUT THERE WILL BE A
STRONGER THAN NORMAL SEA BREEZE ACROSS THE WEST FACING BEACH AND
NEAR SHORE AREAS.
MOST AREAS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES TODAY, BUT THE ANTELOPE VLY
WILL WARM BY ABOUT 6 DEGREES WITH THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
THE STRONGER SEA BREEZE WILL COOL THE CSTS/VLYS BY 1 TO 2 DEGREES
MONDAY WHILE THE RISING HGTS BRING 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF WARMING TO
THE MTNS AND INTERIOR. A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND A STILL STRONGER
SEA BREEZE WILL COOL THE CENTRAL COAST BY ABOUT 6 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY, WHILE THE REST OF THE CSTS AND VLYS SEE 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF
COOLING. MOST CST VLY MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND
TUESDAY BUT WILL FALL BLO NORMALS ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
31/220 AM.
JUNE WEATHER WILL BE IN FULL SWING DURING THE XTND PORTION OF THE
FCST. A SMALL RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WED
AND THU AND HGTS WILL RISE TO ABOUT 586 DAM. THEN A DECENT SIZED
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACNW AND HGTS WILL FALL TO 578 DAM
ON SATURDAY. MDT TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD STRONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CSTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE VLYS WILL LIKELY WAKE UP TO STRATUS ON
SATURDAY. SOME BEACHES MAY STRUGGLE TO CLEAR ON FRI AND SAT.
OTHER THAN A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SEABREEZE THERE WILL BE NO WIND
ISSUES.
MOST AREAS WILL WARM ON WEDNESDAY AS HGTS RISE AND THE ONSHORE
PUSH WILL BE AT ITS LOWEST POINT IN THE 4 DAY PERIOD. SOME COOL
AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER THURSDAY'S TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING HGTS WILL
BRING A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE AREA BOTH ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY MOST MAX TEMPS WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREE BLO
NORMAL WITH VLY HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
AVIATION
31/1210Z.
AT 0832Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR INVERSION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD AND KWJF
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KSBP, KOXR AND KCMA WITH A 15 PERCENT
CHC OF IFR CIGS 12Z-16Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KSMX, KSMO, KLAX AND KLGB. ARRIVAL
AND DEPARTURE TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS COULD BE OFF BY 1 HOUR.
KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF VFR CONDS
THIS MORNING. IF LOW CLOUDS DO ARRIVE CLEARING TIME COULD BE ANY
TIME 16Z-18Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST WINDS WILL STAY UNDER
8 KNOTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
31/205 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND,
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN A COMBINATION OF AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK, INITIALLY THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL, SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A 40% CHANCE OF GALE
FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A 30% CHANCE THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SCA LEVELS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A 30%
CHANCE OF GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF SCA WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCA WINDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
ALL WATERS WILL SEE CHOPPY SEAS DUE TO THE WINDS IN THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE/BLACK
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...RAT/RK/KL/CC
SYNOPSIS...RAT
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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