684
FXUS66 KLOX 312036
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
136 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
SYNOPSIS
31/220 AM.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, BUT
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THERE WILL BE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
31/1113 AM.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SUNDOWNERS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE WEAKER. ISOLATED GUSTS COULD REACH 45 MPH
SUCH AS AT GAVIOTA. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE TOO LOCALIZED
AND SHORT-DURATION TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY (20% CHANCE). THERE
IS LIKELY TO BE ANOTHER UPTICK OF WINDS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR, BUT GUSTS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS (20 TO 30 MPH).
500MB HEIGHTS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. GOOD CONFIDENCE BY TUESDAY THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL COVER
MUCH OF THE OXNARD PLAIN AND THE SANTA BARBARA-MONTECITO AREA.
LOW CONFIDENCE WHETHER LOW CLOUDS WILL REACH PORTIONS OF THE SAN
FERNANDO VALLEY - THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CATALINA
EDDY. SOME ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A -2.0 MB SBA-SAN PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WOULD INDICATE A MODERATELY STRENGTH EDDY. FOR
NOW, HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO ADDITIONAL
SUPPORTING FACTORS. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE THAT STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE KEEPING LATE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS (AND
EVENINGS FOR MANY AREAS) MOSTLY CLEAR.
WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THIS PERIOD.
STRONGER THAN NORMAL SEA BREEZE ACROSS THE WEST FACING BEACH AND
NEAR SHORE AREAS IS EXPECTED.
CSTS/VLYS SHOULD COOL A COUPLE DEGREES MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
ON TUESDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST ON TUESDAY (ABOUT 6 DEGREES) - DUE TO STRONGER SEA
BREEZE AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW
NORMAL ON TUESDAY. FAR INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL WARM 2 TO 4
DEGREES MONDAY, AND LOCALLY UP TO 6 DEGREES ACROSS THE CARRIZO
PLAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR ON TUESDAY AND WILL
REMAIN ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
31/135 PM.
A SMALL RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WED
AND THU AND HGTS WILL RISE TO ABOUT 586 DAM. IN COMBINATION,
WITH RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM THE NORTH INDICATED BY
LAX-BFL ECWMF PROJECTIONS APPROACHING 0-1MB - THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE WARMEST DAYS ACROSS THE AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT
WARMER DUE TO SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY. MAX TEMP
DEPARTURES LOOK TO AVERAGE IN THE 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
RANGE ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
REFINE TEMPERATURES AS WE GET CLOSER.
THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS INCLUDES: SALINAS VALLEY, I-5
CORRIDOR, & WESTERN SANTA YNEZ MTN RANGE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SW SB COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO GUSTY SUNDOWNERS AND MODERATELY DRY
CONDITIONS. STRONGER THAN NORMAL SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CSTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE VLYS WILL LIKELY WAKE UP TO STRATUS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME BEACHES MAY STRUGGLE TO CLEAR ON FRI,
SAT, AND POSSIBLY ON SUNDAY. THIS IS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AS AN UPPER LOW
SWINGS ACROSS THE PACNW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION
31/1954Z.
AT 19Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A 1800 FT MARINE LAYER WITH AN
INVERSION TO 3500 FT AT 18 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPMD, KWJF, AND KPRB.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE. WHERE IFR/MFR CIGS ARE FORECAST
THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT VFR CONDS PREVAIL WITH A
20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WHERE THEY ARE NOT
FORECAST.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS AS EARLY AS 06Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST WINDS
WILL STAY UNDER 8 KNOTS.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS 10Z-17Z.
MARINE
31/132 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND,
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN A COMBINATION OF AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK, INITIALLY THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL, SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A 40% CHANCE OF GALE
FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCA SEAS OF 10+ FEET MAY LINGER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A 30% CHANCE THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SCA LEVELS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A 30%
CHANCE OF GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF SCA WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA WINDS AGAIN
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON TO NIGHT.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...BLACK
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM/RAT/RK/KL/CC
SYNOPSIS...RAT
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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