881
FXUS66 KLOX 010305
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
805 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
SYNOPSIS
31/804 PM.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT TIMES, BUT
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THERE WILL BE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)
31/803 PM.
***UPDATE***
THE ONLY LOW CLOUDS NOTED EARLY THIS EVENING WERE ALONG THE SBA
COUNTY CENTRAL COAST, BUT LOW CLOUDS WERE PREVALENT NW TO S OF THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT, AN EDDY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOCAL BIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER THIS
AREA AND EXPAND INTO THE L.A./VTU COUNTY COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LIKELY TO THE SBA COUNTY S COAST BY DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
MINIMAL DUE TO A RELATIVELY SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION NEAR 1200 FT
OR SO. ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND
OVER THIS REGION OVERNIGHT AND PUSH INLAND TO THE SANTA YNEZ VLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME SUNDOWNER WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING, SOMEWHAT
LOCALIZED AROUND GAVIOTA AND REFUGIO PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WERE NOTED AT REFUGIO RAWS WITH GUSTS TO 42 MPH AND AT GAVIOTA
RAWS WITH A GUST OF 39 MPH. THESE HIGHER LOCALIZED WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE SHOULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN SANTA YNEZ RANGE THIS EVENING.
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
500MB HEIGHTS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. GOOD CONFIDENCE BY TUESDAY THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL COVER
MUCH OF THE OXNARD PLAIN AND THE SANTA BARBARA-MONTECITO AREA.
LOW CONFIDENCE WHETHER LOW CLOUDS WILL REACH PORTIONS OF THE SAN
FERNANDO VALLEY - THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CATALINA
EDDY. SOME ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A -2.0 MB SBA-SAN PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WOULD INDICATE A MODERATELY STRENGTH EDDY. FOR
NOW, HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO ADDITIONAL
SUPPORTING FACTORS. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE THAT STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE KEEPING LATE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS (AND
EVENINGS FOR MANY AREAS) MOSTLY CLEAR.
WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THIS PERIOD.
STRONGER THAN NORMAL SEA BREEZE ACROSS THE WEST FACING BEACH AND
NEAR SHORE AREAS IS EXPECTED.
CSTS/VLYS SHOULD COOL A COUPLE DEGREES MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
ON TUESDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST ON TUESDAY (ABOUT 6 DEGREES) - DUE TO STRONGER SEA
BREEZE AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW
NORMAL ON TUESDAY. FAR INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL WARM 2 TO 4
DEGREES MONDAY, AND LOCALLY UP TO 6 DEGREES ACROSS THE CARRIZO
PLAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR ON TUESDAY AND WILL
REMAIN ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
31/135 PM.
A SMALL RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WED
AND THU AND HGTS WILL RISE TO ABOUT 586 DAM. IN COMBINATION,
WITH RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM THE NORTH INDICATED BY
LAX-BFL ECWMF PROJECTIONS APPROACHING 0-1MB - THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE WARMEST DAYS ACROSS THE AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT
WARMER DUE TO SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY. MAX TEMP
DEPARTURES LOOK TO AVERAGE IN THE 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
RANGE ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
REFINE TEMPERATURES AS WE GET CLOSER.
THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS INCLUDES: SALINAS VALLEY, I-5
CORRIDOR, & WESTERN SANTA YNEZ MTN RANGE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SW SB COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO GUSTY SUNDOWNERS AND MODERATELY DRY
CONDITIONS. STRONGER THAN NORMAL SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CSTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE VLYS WILL LIKELY WAKE UP TO STRATUS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME BEACHES MAY STRUGGLE TO CLEAR ON FRI,
SAT, AND POSSIBLY ON SUNDAY. THIS IS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AS AN UPPER LOW
SWINGS ACROSS THE PACNW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION
01/0037Z.
AT 2338Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 900 FEET DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 3100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPMD, KWJF, AND KPRB.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE COASTAL AND REMAINING VALLEY TAFS.
WHERE IFR/MFR CIGS ARE FORECAST THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT VFR CONDS PREVAIL WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WHERE THEY ARE NOT FORECAST.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS AS EARLY AS 06Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY
EAST WINDS WILL STAY UNDER 8 KNOTS.
KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDS 11Z-15Z.
MARINE
31/132 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND,
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN A COMBINATION OF AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK, INITIALLY THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL, SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A 40% CHANCE OF GALE
FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCA SEAS OF 10+ FEET MAY LINGER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A 30% CHANCE THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SCA LEVELS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A 30%
CHANCE OF GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF SCA WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA WINDS AGAIN
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON TO NIGHT.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...BLACK/SIRARD
AVIATION...RM/CC
MARINE...RM/RAT/RK/KL/CC
SYNOPSIS...RAT/SIRARD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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