705
FXUS66 KLOX 021757
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1057 AM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
01/1141 PM.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT TIMES, BUT
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THERE WILL BE GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS AND SOME SUNDOWNERS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
02/825 AM.
***UPDATE***
LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MIX OF HIGH CLOUDS AND
MARINE LAYER STRATUS. CURRENT SOUNDING DATA INDICATES MARINE
INVERSION AROUND 2200 FEET DEEP. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM, NO ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL JUNE CONDITIONS. CURRENT EXTENSIVE STRATUS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MORNING, LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN ITS WAKE. BASED ON MORNING TEMP STUDY DATA, TODAY LOOKS
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
GRADIENTS, EXTENSIVE MARINE INFLUENCE AND SOME LOWERING
THICKNESSES. FINALLY WITH RESPECT TO WINDS, TYPICAL SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, NO ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
OVERALL, CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM. SO, NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A WEAK EDDY, ONSHORE FLOW AND CYCLONIC TURNING ALOFT HAVE ALL
TEAMED UP TO PRODUCE A TYPICAL JUNE DAY. THERE WILL BE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF THE CSTS AND MOST VLYS. WHILE SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY BY AFTERNOON THE COASTAL CLEARING WILL NOT COME UNTIL LATE
MORNING. THE DEEP AND MORE PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON WILL COOL MOST OF THE CSTS AND VLYS
BY 3 TO 6 DEGREES. MAX TEMPS WILL END UP 2 TO 4 DEGREES BLO NORMAL
ACROSS THE CSTS/VLYS.
A RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW COMING OFF OF THE TOP OF IT WILL CREATE NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AN EDDY AND ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SFC
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE CSTS AND VLYS. THE
NORTHERLY PUSH WILL FILTER DOWN FROM THE MTNS AND BRING QUICKER
CLEARING TO THE CSTS/VLYS. ALL AREAS ARE FORECAST TO WARM 3 TO 5
DEGREES FROM A COMBINATION OF RISING HGTS, SUBSIDENCE, AND MORE
SUNSHINE. THE ONLY QUESTION MARK WITH THE TEMP FORECAST IS THE
NEAR SHORE AREA WHICH MAY SEE LITTLE OR NO WARMING DUE TO A STRONG
SEA BREEZE.
STRONGER NORTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN SBA SOUTH COAST
AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR. AN EDDY WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS TO THE CSTS
(THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL STAY CLEAR DUE TO THE SUNDOWNER WINDS)
BUT THE NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE VLYS.
ONCE AGAIN THE NORTHERLY PUSH WILL BRING QUICKER THAN NORMAL
CLEARING THURSDAY MORNING. MOST TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY'S EXCEPT ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL
VLY WHERE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL BRING ABOUT 6 DEGREES OF WARMING.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
02/1221 AM.
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A GLOOMY DAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SUBSIDE. AN EDDY WILL CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD
BRING LOW CLOUDS TO THE CSTS AND MOST VLYS. THE ONSHORE PUSH TO
THE EAST AND NORTH WILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND 8 MB WHICH IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP MANY BEACHES IN THE CLOUDS ALL DAY LONG. MOST MAX
TEMPS WILL FALL BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES. EVEN WITH THE COOLING MAX TEMPS
WILL REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST WHICH WILL END UP 2 OR 3 DEGREES BLO NORMAL)
LARGE SCALE TROFFING MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SFC MDT-STG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ESP
TO THE EAST AND IN THE AFTERNOONS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF MARINE LAYER
STRATUS IN THE MORNINGS ACROSS THE CSTS AND MANY VLYS. THE
NEARSHORE AREAS WILL HAVE SLOW CLEARING AND SOME BEACHES WILL NOT
SEE THE SUN. THERE WILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL SEABREEZES AS WELL
AS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VLY.
2 TO 4 DEGREES OF COOLING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 1 TO 2 DEGREES OF
ADDITIONAL COOLING SUNDAY/ THIS WILL MAKE SUNDAY THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS
THE CSTS/VLYS OR 2 TO 5 DEGREES BLO NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMING ON MONDAY AS THE TROF WEAKENS AND THE ONSHORE PUSH
RELAXES A TOUCH.
AVIATION
02/1756Z.
AT 1653Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2500 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD, KWJF, AND KPRB.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT MINIMUMS BY ONE
CATEGORY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CLEARING OF MVFR CIGS 015 MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 02/1930-2030Z. THEREAFTER, ARRIVAL AND CLEARING
CIGS 010-015 SHOULD BE ACCURATE WITHIN +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT
FORECAST. IFR CIGS AS LOW AS 007 IS POSSIBLE ROUGHLY 04/04-10Z.
NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS 30% CHC OF LIFR CIGS
004 WHEN STRATUS ARRIVES. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
02/738 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
GENERALLY EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO STAY BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A 60-80% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS PEAKING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 30-40%
CHANCE THAT GALES MAY LINGER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY,
OTHERWISE SCA WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. LOCAL GUSTS OF 20-25 KT IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A 30-50% CHANCE OF GALES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO LATE NIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE, SCA WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER DECREASING SOME
FRIDAY, WINDS MAY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS AGAIN SATURDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS A 50-70 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SCA WINDS TODAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6
PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE/THOMPSON
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...RM/CC/DB
SYNOPSIS...RAT/SIRARD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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