970
FXUS66 KLOX 022039
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
139 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
01/1141 PM.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT TIMES, BUT
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THERE WILL BE GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS AND SOME SUNDOWNERS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
02/139 PM.
OVERALL, 12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, MODERATE
ONSHORE WILL PREVAIL TO THE EAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN NORTHERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE SHORT TERM, MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS,
MORE SPECIFICALLY NORTHERLY WINDS. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
DATA, NORTHERLY OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS (ESPECIALLY SBA-SMX)
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT. SO, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE
ACROSS THE USUAL LOCATIONS (SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR).
LOOKING AT HREF DATA, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS TONIGHT AND ABOUT A 50-70% CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO, WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT, EXPECTING ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS TO REMAIN LOCALIZED. HOWEVER, SOME ADVISORIES WILL BE A
DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WILL EXPECT THE
USUAL GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
OTHER THAN WINDS, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. MARINE LAYER
STRATUS/FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN "ISSUE" DURING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. WITH RISING H5 HEIGHTS AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS,
WILL EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STRATUS/FOG
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, WILL EXPECT STRATUS COVERAGE TO INCREASE
A BIT. OTHER THAN MARINE LAYER STRATUS, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH LESS MARINE INFLUENCE AND HIGHER THICKNESSES AS UPPER RIDGE
NOSES IN OVERHEAD. BY THURSDAY, AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. HOWEVER ON FRIDAY, WILL
EXPECT SOME SLIGHT COOLING AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES A BIT.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
02/138 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE SAME SYNOPTIC
PAGE. AT UPPER LEVELS, RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
SETTLES IN SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE,
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST WITH
SOME INCREASE IN NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST-WISE, TYPICAL JUNE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT, AND
RATHER EXTENSIVE, THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DRIZZLE. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME DECREASE
IN AREAL STRATUS COVERAGE AS NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. OTHER THAN
THE MARINE LAYER, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY, DEPENDING ON IF ANY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW.
AS FOR WINDS, NO MAJOR ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, THE MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS COULD CAUSE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS TO FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS (MAINLY THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOOTHILLS). FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LOCALIZED.
FINALLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, A NOTICEABLE COOLING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WITH WEEKEND WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH AND INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW, ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
A FEW DEGREES, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
02/1756Z.
AT 1653Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2500 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD, KWJF, AND KPRB.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT MINIMUMS BY ONE
CATEGORY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CLEARING OF MVFR CIGS 015 MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 02/1930-2030Z. THEREAFTER, ARRIVAL AND CLEARING
CIGS 010-015 SHOULD BE ACCURATE WITHIN +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT
FORECAST. IFR CIGS AS LOW AS 007 IS POSSIBLE ROUGHLY 04/04-10Z.
NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS 30% CHC OF LIFR CIGS
004 WHEN STRATUS ARRIVES. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
02/1220 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS (GUSTS TO 40 KT). SEAS WILL PEAK 12-15 FT
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE THAT GALES MAY
LINGER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE, SCA CONDITIONS (WINDS AND/OR SEAS) ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. LOCAL GUSTS OF 20-25 KT IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A 30-50% CHANCE OF GALES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO LATE NIGHT HOURS. WILL LET THE SWING SHIFT
DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE. OTHERWISE, SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER DECREASING SOME FRIDAY,
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS AGAIN SATURDAY, AND SEAS WILL
HOVER NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS A 50-70 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SCA WINDS TODAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND SUNDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...RAT/SIRARD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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