298
FXUS66 KLOX 030555
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1055 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
02/1010 PM.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT TIMES, BUT
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. DEVELOPING NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL AFFECT AREAS OF SOUTHERN CA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
02/1004 PM.
***UPDATE***
HIGHS TODAY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S THROUGHOUT THE
AREA, WITH COOLER 60S COMMON NEAR THE COASTS. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
PLAYED A ROLE IN LIMITING WARMING NEAR THE COASTS, AND LINGERED
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FOR QUITE A FEW AREAS. EXPECTING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW, WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION, NORTH WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SANTA YNEZ RANGE.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
PEAKING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. COULD NEED WIND ADVISORIES FOR
THE ENTIRE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAIN RANGE, AND NEAR THE I-5 CORRIDOR
WITH GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 45-50 MPH POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH REOCCURRING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG, AND
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
OVERALL, 12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, MODERATE
ONSHORE WILL PREVAIL TO THE EAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN NORTHERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE SHORT TERM, MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS,
MORE SPECIFICALLY NORTHERLY WINDS. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
DATA, NORTHERLY OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS (ESPECIALLY SBA-SMX)
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT. SO, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE
ACROSS THE USUAL LOCATIONS (SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR).
LOOKING AT HREF DATA, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS TONIGHT AND ABOUT A 50-70% CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO, WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT, EXPECTING ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS TO REMAIN LOCALIZED. HOWEVER, SOME ADVISORIES WILL BE A
DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WILL EXPECT THE
USUAL GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
OTHER THAN WINDS, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. MARINE LAYER
STRATUS/FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN "ISSUE" DURING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. WITH RISING H5 HEIGHTS AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS,
WILL EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STRATUS/FOG
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, WILL EXPECT STRATUS COVERAGE TO INCREASE
A BIT. OTHER THAN MARINE LAYER STRATUS, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH LESS MARINE INFLUENCE AND HIGHER THICKNESSES AS UPPER RIDGE
NOSES IN OVERHEAD. BY THURSDAY, AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. HOWEVER ON FRIDAY, WILL
EXPECT SOME SLIGHT COOLING AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES A BIT.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
02/138 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE SAME SYNOPTIC
PAGE. AT UPPER LEVELS, RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
SETTLES IN SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE,
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST WITH
SOME INCREASE IN NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST-WISE, TYPICAL JUNE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT, AND
RATHER EXTENSIVE, THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DRIZZLE. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME DECREASE
IN AREAL STRATUS COVERAGE AS NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. OTHER THAN
THE MARINE LAYER, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY, DEPENDING ON IF ANY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW.
AS FOR WINDS, NO MAJOR ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, THE MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS COULD CAUSE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS TO FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS (MAINLY THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOOTHILLS). FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LOCALIZED.
FINALLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, A NOTICEABLE COOLING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WITH WEEKEND WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH AND INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW, ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
A FEW DEGREES, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
03/0550Z.
AT 0450Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1600 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD, KWJF, AND KPRB.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CIGS
TIMING. VFR TRANSITION COULD BE OFF BY -1 HOUR OR + 90 MINUTES.
CIG HGTS COULD BE OFF BY +/- 200 FT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
21Z. CIGS MAY RISE TO 018 BY 15Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND
COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
CIGS REMAINING AOB 006. VFR CONDS COULD ARRIVE ANYTIME BETWEEN
1630 AND 1800.
MARINE
02/813 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS (GUSTS TO 40 KT). SEAS WILL PEAK 12-15 FT DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE THAT GALES MAY LINGER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
OTHERWISE, SCA CONDITIONS (WINDS AND/OR SEAS) ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. LOCAL GUSTS OF 20-25 KT IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A
70% CHANCE OF GALES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO LATE NIGHT
HOURS. OTHERWISE, SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER DECREASING SOME FRIDAY, WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO SCA LEVELS AGAIN SATURDAY, AND SEAS WILL HOVER NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SCA WINDS WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN
THURSDAY, AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM
PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/THOMPSON
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...BLACK/RS
SYNOPSIS...PHILLIPS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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