201
FXUS66 KLOX 031710
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1010 AM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
03/851 AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INLAND AND NEAR NORMAL
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN DROPPING BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEY AREAS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
03/912 AM.
***UPDATE***
THE MARINE LAYER HAS RISEN TO 2200 FEET THIS MORNING, COVERING ALL
THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS. EXPECTING SIMILAR CLEARING AS
YESTERDAY AS WELL AS SIMILAR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THEN SOME
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THIS
EVENING AND POSSIBLY THE I5 CORRIDOR.
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THURSDAY, THEN TURNING COOLER FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHING.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A 1600 FT DEEP MARINE LAYER, ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY HAVE ALL
TEAMED UP TO BRING LOW CLOUDS MUCH OF THE CSTS AND SOME OF THE
VLYS. AT THE SAME TIME A RIDGE IS NOSING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
STATE FROM THE NORTH AND IN ADDITION TO CREATING RISING HGTS IT IS
ALSO BRING NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING AN EARLIER CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO MANY AREAS THIS
MORNING. THE SUNNY AFTERNOON SKIES, NORTHERLY FLOW AND RISING HGTS
WILL BRING 3 TO 6 LOCALLY 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TO ALL AREAS
TODAY. VLY TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON OR 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PEAK TONIGHT AND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ARE
LIKELY (70-80 PERCENT CHC) ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SBA
SOUTH CST AND PORTIONS OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR.
THERE IS A FAIRLY TRICKY LOW CLOUD FORECAST THURSDAY MORNING AS A
DECENTLY STRONG EDDY COMPETES WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE
NORTH. THE EDDY WILL LIKELY BRING LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTS OF LA
AND VTA COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN SBA COUNTY. THE NORTH
FLOW, HOWEVER, WILL KEEP THE VLYS, THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SLO
COUNTY CLOUD FREE. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH ALL AREAS
EXPERIENCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAVE FOR THE BEACHES WHICH WILL
END UP A FEW DEGREES UNDER NORMALS DUE TO THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE AFTERNOON.
NO EDDY IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND THERE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH OOMPH TO LIFT THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE VLYS. ONSHORE FLOW TO
THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO COVER MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE COASTAL AREAS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THIS ALONG WITH
THE STRONG AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW WILL COOL MOST AREAS BY 2 TO 4
DEGREES.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
03/236 AM.
TROFFING AND MDT-STG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE XTND PERIOD.
THIS WILL BRING VERY JUNE LIKE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON ALL 4
DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL PENETRATE DEEP INTO THE VLYS AND WILL LIKELY NOT
CLEAR AT ALL FROM MANY BEACH AND NEARSHORE AREAS WHILE THE REST OF
THE CSTS/VLYS SEE SLOWER THAN NORMAL CLEARING. 3 TO 5 DEGREES OF
COOLING SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL DEGREES ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY'S MAX TEMPS WILL END UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE CSTS AND A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 80 IN THE VLYS.
THESE MAX TEMPS ARE MOSTLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
THE ONSHORE FLOW RELAXES SOME ON MON AND TUE AND THIS WILL BRING
EARLIER CLEARING TIMES FOR THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS AS WELL AS A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY.
AVIATION
03/1710Z.
AT 1700Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1900 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTS FOR KPRB, KWJF
AND KPMD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FOR ALL OTHER TAFS, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECASTS.
TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT
FORECASTS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z
FORECAST. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD RETURN AT MVFR
LEVELS TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS
EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS IN THE 08Z-16Z TIME FRAME.
MARINE
03/720 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LEVELS AND GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT. FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS
(PEAKING 12-15 FEET) WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS AT
TIMES.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH TONIGHT, THERE IS A 60-80%
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THERE IS A
60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL SEAS AT
TIMES.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND A 20-30% CHANCE
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9
PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR ZONES
670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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