231
FXUS66 KLOX 032022
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
122 PM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
03/1241 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INLAND AND NEAR NORMAL
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN DROPPING BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEY AREAS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
03/110 PM.
INCREASING DRY NORTHERLY FLOW HAS MANAGED TO CLEAR THE STRATUS
FROM MOST OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
PATTERN IS ALSO CREATING SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS
AND THROUGH THE GAVIOTA PASS WHERE GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 3-4MB FROM THE NORTH. LATEST HI RES MODELS KEEP WINDS
MOSTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS SO FOR NOW NO WIND HAZARDS ARE IN
EFFECT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE. THE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION HAS
CREATED SIGNIFICANT WARMING FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH TEMPS UP 5-10 DEGREES. LIKELY A SIMILAR PATTERN
THURSDAY, THEN TURNING COOLER WITH A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE, A SIMILAR STORY WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES WHERE MANY
INLAND AREAS TODAY ARE UP 5-10 DEGREES, BUT ALONG THE COAST VERY
LITTLE CHANGE. THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 2200 FEET THIS MORNING
AND FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW SLIGHT LOWERING TONIGHT, SO LIKELY A
LITTLE LESS AND/OR EARLIER CLEARING ACROSS SOME OF THE VALLEYS BUT
STILL STARTING OFF THE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MOST
COASTAL AREAS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO TODAY'S LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS, MEANING NEAR NORMAL AT THE COAST AND 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL INLAND.
GOING FORWARD, A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO START FRIDAY AS A
LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. 2-4 DEGREES OF COOLING
IS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SAT. A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER IS
EXPECTED AS WELL, LEADING TO MUCH LATER CLEARING TIMES, POSSIBLY
NOT CLEARING SOME COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
03/121 PM.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE 4-7 DAY FORECAST AS SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE UPPER LOW ARRIVING LATER THIS WEEK MAY
LINGER LONGER INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD NOT AN UNUSUAL PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE JUNE GLOOM
CONDITIONS CONTINUING LONGER. THE MODEL PERCENTAGES SEEM TO BE
FAVORING THAT SITUATION AT LEAST FOR NOW BUT POSSIBLY ONLY BY
ABOUT A 60/40 CHANCE. IF THE WARMER SITUATION PREVAILS THE
DIFFERENCE WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 5 DEGREES
WITH HIGHS 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SO THE IMPACTS WOULD BE
RELATIVELY MINOR.
AVIATION
03/1710Z.
AT 1700Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1900 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTS FOR KPRB, KWJF
AND KPMD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FOR ALL OTHER TAFS, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECASTS.
TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT
FORECASTS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z
FORECAST. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD RETURN AT MVFR
LEVELS TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS
EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS IN THE 08Z-16Z TIME FRAME.
MARINE
03/110 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE
WINDS AND GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COMBINATION OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE WINDS (ESPECIALLY ACROSS PZZ670).
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH THIS EVENING, THERE IS A
60-80% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THERE IS A 60-80%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
SEAS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS AT TIMES.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND A 30-40% CHANCE
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM
PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW
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