615
FXUS66 KLOX 040654
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1154 PM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
03/1241 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INLAND AND NEAR NORMAL
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN DROPPING BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEY AREAS.
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)
03/941 PM.
***UPDATE***
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRENDED WARMER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENED OVER THE REGION. COASTAL AREAS REMAINED FAIRLY COOL
(60S TO NEAR 70) WITH PLENTY OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND ONSHORE
FLOW. TOMORROW COULD SEE A BIT MORE WARMING NEAR THE COASTS DUE
TO LESS MARINE LAYER CLOUDS. HOWEVER, STILL EXPECTING STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW ESPECIALLY ON THE CENTRAL COAST WHICH WILL LIMIT
WARMING. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD TREND 2-5 DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERING. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED A BIT TO ACCOUNT
FOR COOLER VALUES NEAR THE COASTS AND WARMER VALUES OVER THE
INTERIOR. SATURDAY, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING 5-10
DEGREES OF COOLING AND LEAD TO AN EXPANSION OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
AS IT DEEPENS.
WIND ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS (PEAKING AT 45-50
MPH) OVER THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE, NEAR THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ANTELOPE VALLEY FOOTHILLS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
INCREASING DRY NORTHERLY FLOW HAS MANAGED TO CLEAR THE STRATUS
FROM MOST OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
PATTERN IS ALSO CREATING SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS
AND THROUGH THE GAVIOTA PASS WHERE GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 3-4MB FROM THE NORTH. LATEST HI RES MODELS KEEP WINDS
MOSTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS SO FOR NOW NO WIND HAZARDS ARE IN
EFFECT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE. THE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION HAS
CREATED SIGNIFICANT WARMING FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH TEMPS UP 5-10 DEGREES. LIKELY A SIMILAR PATTERN
THURSDAY, THEN TURNING COOLER WITH A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE, A SIMILAR STORY WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES WHERE MANY
INLAND AREAS TODAY ARE UP 5-10 DEGREES, BUT ALONG THE COAST VERY
LITTLE CHANGE. THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 2200 FEET THIS MORNING
AND FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW SLIGHT LOWERING TONIGHT, SO LIKELY A
LITTLE LESS AND/OR EARLIER CLEARING ACROSS SOME OF THE VALLEYS BUT
STILL STARTING OFF THE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MOST
COASTAL AREAS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO TODAY'S LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS, MEANING NEAR NORMAL AT THE COAST AND 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL INLAND.
GOING FORWARD, A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO START FRIDAY AS A
LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. 2-4 DEGREES OF COOLING
IS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SAT. A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER IS
EXPECTED AS WELL, LEADING TO MUCH LATER CLEARING TIMES, POSSIBLY
NOT CLEARING SOME COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
03/121 PM.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE 4-7 DAY FORECAST AS SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE UPPER LOW ARRIVING LATER THIS WEEK MAY
LINGER LONGER INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD NOT AN UNUSUAL PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE JUNE GLOOM
CONDITIONS CONTINUING LONGER. THE MODEL PERCENTAGES SEEM TO BE
FAVORING THAT SITUATION AT LEAST FOR NOW BUT POSSIBLY ONLY BY
ABOUT A 60/40 CHANCE. IF THE WARMER SITUATION PREVAILS THE
DIFFERENCE WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 5 DEGREES
WITH HIGHS 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SO THE IMPACTS WOULD BE
RELATIVELY MINOR.
AVIATION
04/0654Z.
AT 0511Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 800 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KWJF AND KPMD.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF FOR KSBP WHERE THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHC OF LIFR CONDS 11Z-16Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KBUR AND KVNY WHERE THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHC OF NO LOW CLOUDS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS. VFR CONDS MAY
ARRIVE UP TO 2 HOURS LATER THAN FCST AND CIGS HGTS COULD BE OFF BY
+/- 200 FT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF
CIGS REMAIN AOA 010. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SCT CONDS
21Z-01Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT
THERE WILL BE NO LOW CLOUDS.
MARINE
03/758 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE
WINDS (ESPECIALLY ACROSS PZZ670).
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY, THERE IS A 60-80%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
WITH SEAS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS AT TIMES.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS,
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS LATE
TONIGHT AND A 30-40% CHANCE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
349-351-352-378-381. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MW
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...RAT/RS
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page