630
FXUS66 KLOX 050223
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
723 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
04/1257 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INLAND AND NEAR NORMAL
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN DROPPING BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEY AREAS.
SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)
04/139 PM.
OVERALL A VERY SIMILAR DAY TODAY AS YESTERDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING NEAR THE BEACHES BETWEEN MALIBU AND SANTA BARBARA AND
WARMER VALLEYS IN THE LOWER 90S. A VERY TYPICAL JUNE DAY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
A LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE BC COAST IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW THIS WEEKEND, LOWERING
HEIGHTS ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND COOLING TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
INLAND. BY SUNDAY MOST AREAS WILL BE 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER WILL TOP OUT AROUND
2500 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND BUT GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT 3000 FEET OR HIGHER. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ALL COAST AND VALLEY AREAS OVERNIGHT AND
CLEAR TO NEAR THE BEACHES EACH AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LEADING
TO LESS WIND ACROSS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE I5
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE FAVORING A RETURN OF SUNDOWNERS
SUNDAY EVENING WITH A 3-4MB GRADIENT FROM THE NORTH.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
04/205 PM.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MAINTAINING A TROUGH PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE EVEN A FEW ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
SHOWING A COLD UPPER LOW AS FAR SOUTH AS FRESNO NEXT TUESDAY WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
SOLUTIONS FAVOR MOST OF THAT ENERGY STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH WITH
JUST A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK AND
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT STILL EITHER NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FOR WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW OR
EVEN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW STARTING NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THAT
WOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL WARMING BUT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES
KEEP GRADIENTS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ONSHORE WITH A MORE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND.
AVIATION
05/0220Z.
AT 2230Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1500 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
FOR ALL OTHER SITES, MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH
THE MARINE LAYER. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/-
3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. CIGS MAY FAIL TO CLEAR IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS NEAR THE COASTS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. NO SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE THAT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS DO NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT.
MARINE
04/108 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS PZZ670 AND
PZZ673 ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH THIS EVENING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA
LEVEL WINDS. ON FRIDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING
BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE IS A 60-80%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME,
SEAS MAY APPROACH 10 FEET.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, WHERE THERE IS A 40-50%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, MAINLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...PHILLIPS/RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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