804
FXUS66 KLOX 050551
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1051 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
04/836 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INLAND AND NEAR NORMAL
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN DROPPING BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEY AREAS.
SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)
04/815 PM.
***UPDATE***
TODAY WAS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH PERHAPS A BIT LESS
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG. THE INTERIOR WANTED INTO THE 90S TO
100 DEGREES, AND COOL 60S AND 70S NEAR THE COASTS. FRIDAY SHOULD
SEE VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES, WITH HEIGHTS FALLING SLIGHTLY.
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND SOME AREAS MAY FAIL TO
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A COOLING TREND
SATURDAY AND A DEEPENING, LARGE EXPANSION OF THE MARINE LAYER.
ASIDE FROM COOLING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
OVERALL A VERY SIMILAR DAY TODAY AS YESTERDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING NEAR THE BEACHES BETWEEN MALIBU AND SANTA BARBARA AND
WARMER VALLEYS IN THE LOWER 90S. A VERY TYPICAL JUNE DAY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
A LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE BC COAST IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW THIS WEEKEND, LOWERING
HEIGHTS ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND COOLING TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
INLAND. BY SUNDAY MOST AREAS WILL BE 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER WILL TOP OUT AROUND
2500 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND BUT GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT 3000 FEET OR HIGHER. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ALL COAST AND VALLEY AREAS OVERNIGHT AND
CLEAR TO NEAR THE BEACHES EACH AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LEADING
TO LESS WIND ACROSS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE I5
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE FAVORING A RETURN OF SUNDOWNERS
SUNDAY EVENING WITH A 3-4MB GRADIENT FROM THE NORTH.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
04/205 PM.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MAINTAINING A TROUGH PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE EVEN A FEW ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
SHOWING A COLD UPPER LOW AS FAR SOUTH AS FRESNO NEXT TUESDAY WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
SOLUTIONS FAVOR MOST OF THAT ENERGY STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH WITH
JUST A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK AND
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT STILL EITHER NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FOR WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW OR
EVEN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW STARTING NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THAT
WOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL WARMING BUT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES
KEEP GRADIENTS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ONSHORE WITH A MORE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND.
AVIATION
05/0549Z.
AT 0524Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1800 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS AND FLIGHT MINIMUMS BY ONE
CATEGORY. CIGS MAY FAIL TO CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS
NEAR THE COASTS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL AND CLEARING TIMES
OF CIGS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECAST. LOW MVFR
CIGS 010-015 EXPECTED WITH LIKELY INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS AROUND 008. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL AND CLEARING
TIMES OF IFR CIGS 005-008 MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FCST.
30% CHC CIGS LOWER TO LIFR 003-004. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
04/836 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS PZZ670 AND
PZZ673 ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR ZONE PZZ670
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE IS
A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME
FRAME, SEAS WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 10 FEET (SCA LEVEL).
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, WHERE THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MW
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...RAT/CC
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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