613
FXUS66 KLOX 051131
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
431 AM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
05/1251 AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INLAND AND NEAR NORMAL
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN DROPPING BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEY AREAS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
05/257 AM.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH TOWARDS PAC NW AND
DEEPEN SOME THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
CURRENT WEAK RIDGING OVER OUR AREA TO BREAK DOWN AND BY
SUNDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BOTH TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DECREASING
HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A 2500-3000 FT MARINE LAYER.
LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY CLEARING NEAR THE COASTS EACH
AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS MOST LIKELY TO ENTER THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY ON SATURDAY DUE TO LAX-BFL GRADIENTS PEAKING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING PERIOD.
A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST NOTICABLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, AND ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
BY SUNDAY, MOST AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTY BELOW TO BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT
ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WHERE TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL.
THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR LOW-END ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNERS
SUNDAY EVENING. ECWMF AND NAM INDICATE A 3-4MB GRADIENT FROM THE
NORTH.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
05/258 AM.
THE EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD BUT KEEPING THE ENERGY WELL TO THE
NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL EITHER
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST WILL
PERSIST BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN SOME WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE
LAX-BFL PROJECTIONS INDICATE BY TUESDAY NEUTRAL TO EVEN WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH IS LIKELY.
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNERS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOST LIKELY STRONGEST ON TUESDAY.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH, THERE IS
A SMALL SIGNAL FOR LOW-END ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
05/1130Z.
AT 0524Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1700 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS AND FLIGHT MINIMUMS BY ONE
CATEGORY. CIGS MAY FAIL TO CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS
NEAR THE COASTS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL AND CLEARING TIMES
OF CIGS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECAST. LOW MVFR
CIGS 010-015 EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
IFR CIGS 008. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL AND CLEARING TIMES OF
CIGS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
04/836 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS PZZ670 AND
PZZ673 ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR ZONE PZZ670
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE IS
A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME
FRAME, SEAS WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 10 FEET (SCA LEVEL).
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, WHERE THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...BLACK
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...RAT/CC
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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