792
FXUS66 KLOX 051728
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1028 AM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
05/817 AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES
THROUGH THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL COVER MOST COAST
AND VALLEYS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING, CLEARING TO NEAR THE
BEACHES EACH AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
05/829 AM.
***UPDATE***
MARINE LAYER HELD AT 2000 FEET IN LA SLOPING DOWN TO AROUND 1400
FEET ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WHICH IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO FEEL A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY EXCEPT
LIKELY A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. BEACH AREAS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MALIBU NORTH, MAY NOT SEE MUCH SUN TODAY.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH TOWARDS PAC NW AND
DEEPEN SOME THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
CURRENT WEAK RIDGING OVER OUR AREA TO BREAK DOWN AND BY
SUNDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BOTH TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DECREASING
HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A 2500-3000 FT MARINE LAYER.
LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY CLEARING NEAR THE COASTS EACH
AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS MOST LIKELY TO COVER THE SANTA
CLARITA VALLEY ON SATURDAY DUE TO LAX-BFL GRADIENTS PEAKING NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING PERIOD.
A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST NOTICEABLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, AND ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
BY SUNDAY, MOST AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO BELOW NORMAL
EXCEPT ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WHERE TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR
NORMAL.
THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR LOW-END ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNERS
SUNDAY EVENING. ECWMF AND NAM INDICATE A 3-4MB GRADIENT FROM THE
NORTH.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
05/258 AM.
THE EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD BUT KEEPING THE ENERGY WELL TO THE
NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL EITHER
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST WILL
PERSIST BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN SOME WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE
LAX-BFL PROJECTIONS INDICATE BY TUESDAY NEUTRAL TO EVEN WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH IS LIKELY.
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNERS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOST LIKELY STRONGEST ON TUESDAY.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH, THERE IS
A SMALL SIGNAL FOR LOW-END ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
05/1727Z.
AT 1715Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1500 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPMD AND KWJF. FOR ALL
OTHER SITES, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN BEHAVIOR OF MARINE LAYER. TIMING OF FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE THAT SCATTERED CONDITIONS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. NO
SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
MARINE
05/734 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS PZZ670 AND
PZZ673 ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR ZONE PZZ670.
THEREFORE, A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR PZZ670.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH TONIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME, SEAS WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 10 FEET (SCA
LEVEL).
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, WHERE THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/BLACK
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
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