474
FXUS66 KLOX 052056
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
156 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
05/1252 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES
THROUGH THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL COVER MOST COAST
AND VALLEYS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING, CLEARING TO NEAR THE
BEACHES EACH AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
05/125 PM.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS ARE SOLIDLY LOCKED INTO A JUNE
GLOOM PATTERN AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY WELL AT LEAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERIOR AREAS HAVE BEEN WARM BUT WILL BE
TRENDING COOLER AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TWO LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, RISING FROM 2000 FEET TODAY SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION TO
AROUND 3000 FEET TOMORROW MORNING AND 3500 FEET SUNDAY. A LITTLE
LESS DEEP NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING INLAND
TEMPERATURES DOWN AT LEAST 4-8 DEGREES AND COASTAL AREAS DOWN 1-3
DEGREES. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT,
INCLUDING THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY WITH LATER CLEARING INLAND AND
MINIMAL CLEARING AT THE BEACH, IF ANY. CENTRAL COAST AREAS WILL
LIKELY CLEAR EARLIER THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLING THERE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY INLAND.
A WARMING TREND IS SET TO BEGIN MONDAY, MAINLY JUST FOR INLAND
AREAS AS THE THE LAST OF THE TROUGHS MOVE INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A RETURN OF SUNDOWNERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT (AND POSSIBLY THE I5 CORRIDOR) AS NORTHWEST
FLOW RETURNS FOLLOWING THE TROUGH PASSAGE
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
05/155 PM.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARMING AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDOWNERS
WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOST OF THE
WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AT LEAST 1-3 DEGREES EACH DAY.
STILL EXPECTING VALLEY HIGHS TO REMAIN NO HIGHER THAN THE 80S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND THAT REMAINS RATHER LOW. WHILE
MORE THAN HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW A
VERY SLOW CLIMB OF TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THERE ARE STILL
AT LEAST 40% THAT MAINTAIN A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
STEADY DOSE OF ONSHORE FLOW EACH DAY. WHILE THE LATTER WOULD BE
THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SOLUTION, CERTAINLY CANNOT DISCOUNT
A WARMER PATTERN AT THIS POINT. THERE ARE EVEN AROUND 20% OF
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT, WHICH
WOULD BE VERY ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BASED ON THE
LATEST NBM THERE IS ROUGHLY A 5-10% CHANCE OF WARMER VALLEYS
REACHING 100 NEXT WEEKEND AND DOWNTOWN REACHING THE 90.
AVIATION
05/1727Z.
AT 1715Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1500 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPMD AND KWJF. FOR ALL
OTHER SITES, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN BEHAVIOR OF MARINE LAYER. TIMING OF FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE THAT SCATTERED CONDITIONS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. NO
SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
MARINE
05/121 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
PZZ670/673 SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SO, A GALE WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ALONG WITH SEAS APPROACHING SCA
LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, WHERE THERE IS A 40-60%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MAINLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW
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