065
FXUS66 KLOX 060342
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
842 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
05/608 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL COVER MOST OF THE COAST
AND VALLEY LOCATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING, CLEARING TO
NEAR THE BEACHES EACH AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
LATER NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)
05/842 PM.
***UPDATE***
JUNE GLOOM LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY FOR THE
COASTS AND VALLEYS. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN THE US WEST
COAST. 500 MB HEIGHTS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT ON SUNDAY AND SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONGLY ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TOMORROW, HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY EVEN AFTER THE MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG CLEAR OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, COLD AIR WILL SPILL
INTO FROM THE INTERIOR, RESULTING IN DRAMATIC COOLING ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS AND DESERTS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE BEACHES AND INLAND COASTAL PLAINS, AND IN THE 80S FOR
THE WARMER VALLEYS AND THE DESERTS. MINOR TEMPERATURES CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY DUE TO THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
ADDITIONALLY SUNDOWNERS WINDS ARE FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS (AND POSSIBLY THE
I5 CORRIDOR) AS NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RISING FROM 2000 FEET TODAY
SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION TO AROUND 3000 FEET TOMORROW MORNING AND
3500 FEET SUNDAY. A LITTLE LESS DEEP NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION
WILL BRING INLAND TEMPERATURES DOWN AT LEAST 4-8 DEGREES AND
COASTAL AREAS DOWN 1-3 DEGREES. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PUSH INTO
THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT, INCLUDING THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY WITH
LATER CLEARING INLAND AND MINIMAL CLEARING AT THE BEACH, IF ANY.
CENTRAL COAST AREAS WILL LIKELY CLEAR EARLIER THAN AREAS TO THE
SOUTH BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING THERE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
INLAND.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
05/155 PM.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARMING AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDOWNERS
WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOST OF THE
WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AT LEAST 1-3 DEGREES EACH DAY.
STILL EXPECTING VALLEY HIGHS TO REMAIN NO HIGHER THAN THE 80S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND THAT REMAINS RATHER LOW. WHILE
MORE THAN HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW A
VERY SLOW CLIMB OF TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THERE ARE STILL
AT LEAST 40% THAT MAINTAIN A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
STEADY DOSE OF ONSHORE FLOW EACH DAY. WHILE THE LATTER WOULD BE
THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SOLUTION, CERTAINLY CANNOT DISCOUNT
A WARMER PATTERN AT THIS POINT. THERE ARE EVEN AROUND 20% OF
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT, WHICH
WOULD BE VERY ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BASED ON THE
LATEST NBM THERE IS ROUGHLY A 5-10% CHANCE OF WARMER VALLEYS
REACHING 100 NEXT WEEKEND AND DOWNTOWN REACHING THE 90.
AVIATION
06/0106Z.
AT 0029Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1600 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 4000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPMD AND KWJF. FOR
ALL OTHER SITES, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN BEHAVIOR OF MARINE LAYER. LOW CONFIDENCE IN KPRB
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOW CLOUD COVERAGE AND TIMING. OTHERWISE,
THE TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF
CURRENT FORECASTS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. 30-40%
CHANCE THAT NO IFR CONDS OCCUR. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. 30%
CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z.
MARINE
05/121 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
PZZ670/673 SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SO, A GALE WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ALONG WITH SEAS APPROACHING SCA
LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, WHERE THERE IS A 40-60%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MAINLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE
676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...CMC
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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