083
FXUS66 KLOX 060538
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1038 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
05/608 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL COVER MOST OF THE COAST
AND VALLEY LOCATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING, CLEARING TO
NEAR THE BEACHES EACH AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
LATER NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)
05/842 PM.
***UPDATE***
JUNE GLOOM LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY FOR THE
COASTS AND VALLEYS. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN THE US WEST
COAST. 500 MB HEIGHTS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT ON SUNDAY AND SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONGLY ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TOMORROW, HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY EVEN AFTER THE MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG CLEAR OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, COLD AIR WILL SPILL
INTO FROM THE INTERIOR, RESULTING IN DRAMATIC COOLING ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS AND DESERTS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE BEACHES AND INLAND COASTAL PLAINS, AND IN THE 80S FOR
THE WARMER VALLEYS AND THE DESERTS. MINOR TEMPERATURES CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY DUE TO THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
ADDITIONALLY SUNDOWNERS WINDS ARE FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS (AND POSSIBLY THE
I5 CORRIDOR) AS NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RISING FROM 2000 FEET TODAY
SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION TO AROUND 3000 FEET TOMORROW MORNING AND
3500 FEET SUNDAY. A LITTLE LESS DEEP NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION
WILL BRING INLAND TEMPERATURES DOWN AT LEAST 4-8 DEGREES AND
COASTAL AREAS DOWN 1-3 DEGREES. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PUSH INTO
THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT, INCLUDING THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY WITH
LATER CLEARING INLAND AND MINIMAL CLEARING AT THE BEACH, IF ANY.
CENTRAL COAST AREAS WILL LIKELY CLEAR EARLIER THAN AREAS TO THE
SOUTH BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING THERE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
INLAND.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
05/155 PM.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARMING AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDOWNERS
WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOST OF THE
WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AT LEAST 1-3 DEGREES EACH DAY.
STILL EXPECTING VALLEY HIGHS TO REMAIN NO HIGHER THAN THE 80S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND THAT REMAINS RATHER LOW. WHILE
MORE THAN HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW A
VERY SLOW CLIMB OF TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THERE ARE STILL
AT LEAST 40% THAT MAINTAIN A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
STEADY DOSE OF ONSHORE FLOW EACH DAY. WHILE THE LATTER WOULD BE
THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SOLUTION, CERTAINLY CANNOT DISCOUNT
A WARMER PATTERN AT THIS POINT. THERE ARE EVEN AROUND 20% OF
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT, WHICH
WOULD BE VERY ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BASED ON THE
LATEST NBM THERE IS ROUGHLY A 5-10% CHANCE OF WARMER VALLEYS
REACHING 100 NEXT WEEKEND AND DOWNTOWN REACHING THE 90.
AVIATION
06/0537Z.
AT 0501Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS NEAR 2000 FEET DEEP.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 4200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF
22 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT MINIMUMS BY ONE
CATEGORY.
THERE IS A 40% CHANCE LIFR CIGS DO NOT ARRIVE AT KPRB.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS 015 WILL START
FORECAST PERIOD RAISING TO NEAR 2000 FT THRESHOLD AROUND 06/12Z.
THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN THRU FCST PERIOD.
NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. NO WIND ISSUES
EXPECTED.
MARINE
05/926 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS PZZ670/673
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
STARTING SUNDAY, THERE WILL BE SCA WINDS AND STEEP SEAS EVERY DAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A 30% CHANCE OF
GALES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EACH DAY MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH THIS MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, ALONG WITH SEAS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, WHERE THERE IS A 40-60%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MAINLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...RAT/CC
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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