697
FXUS66 KLOX 061553
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
853 AM PDT SAT JUN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
06/322 AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL COVER MOST OF THE
COAST AND VALLEY LOCATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING, CLEARING
TO NEAR THE BEACHES EACH AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
LATER NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
06/853 AM.
***UPDATE***
THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC
NW MOVES SOUTH. CLOUD TOPS NEAR 3000 FEET HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY
PILOTS IN THE LA BASIN WHILE THE VBG SOUNDING MEASURED TOPS AROUND
2000 FEET EARLIER THIS MORNING. SO JUNE GLOOM CONTINUES TODAY AND
LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR ALL THE
VALLEYS BEFORE NOON BUT CLOSER TO THE COAST CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALL
DAY, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MALIBU AND SANTA BARBARA AS THE SOUTH TO
NORTH GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN PEAKING AROUND 6 MB EACH DAY AND
CURRENTLY TRENDING 1-2MB MORE ONSHORE. SO ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL
DAY AT THE COAST WHILE COASTAL VALLEYS TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S, ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EVEN THE DESERTS WILL
FALL SHORT OF 90 TODAY.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE PAC NW.
ALTHOUGH THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH,
500MB HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND WILL
REACH THE LOWEST VALUES ON SUNDAY 576-578DM. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN CLASSIC
JUNE GLOOM LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COASTS & VALLEYS.
MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME DEEPEST ON SUNDAY AROUND 3500 FT AND
PERHAPS A BIT MORE SHALLOWER ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. LATE
CLEARING OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS EXPECTED INLAND, AND MINIMAL TO
NO CLEARING NEAR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WELL INLAND ACROSS THE
FAR INTERIOR. AND FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ALONG THE COASTS.
MINOR DIFFERENCES ON SUNDAY - SOME AREAS SLIGHTLY COOLER OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER.
MODERATE CHANCE (30-40%) OF ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNERS ON SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE SHOWS -3 TO -4 MB SBA-SMX PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WOULD
BE FOCUSED ACROSS AREAS WEST OF SAN MARCO PASS. A BIT BETTER
CHANCE ON MONDAY (40-50%).
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
06/322 AM.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST STARTING TUESDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW IN GENERAL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. ABOUT 15% OF ECWMF MEMBERS SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (LAX-DAG). NOT BUYING THESE SOLUTIONS
AS THEY ARE UNFAVORABLE CLIMATOLOGICALLY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
MOST AREAS SHOULD BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. NBM PROBS
SHOW 10-15% CHANCE OF REACHING 100F ACROSS ANTELOPE VALLEY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. 10-20% CHANCE OF REACHING 90F WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ACROSS SAN FERNANDO AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEYS.
THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNERS TUESDAY. WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW INDICATED BY SBA-BFL ECWMF PROJECTIONS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN THE STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED A BIT EASTWARD (REFUGIO AREA).
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WEDNESDAY DUE TO LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE, BUT
LEANING TOWARDS LESS OF A CHANCE, AND EVEN LOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LAX-BFL IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE QUICKLY FROM 3-4MB MONDAY EVENING TO
NEGATIVE 2 TO -3MB TUESDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS, THERE IS A LIKELY
(60% CHC) OF ADVISORY LEVEL NW-N WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR TUES
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO REVERSE WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY (ONSHORE) WHICH COULD RESULT IN ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
06/1103Z.
AT 0755Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS AT 2100 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 3500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT MINIMUMS BY ONE
CATEGORY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS NEAR 020 THRESHOLD
FOR MOST OF FCST PERIOD. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE THAT CIGS NEVER
CLEAR. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. NO WIND ISSUES
EXPECTED.
MARINE
06/848 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS PZZ670/673
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THERE WILL BE A 20-30%
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH THIS MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, ALONG WITH SEAS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, WHERE THERE IS A 40-60%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MAINLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE
676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/BLACK
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC/DB
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