066
FXUS66 KLOX 220848
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
148 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
21/825 PM.
A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL START MONDAY, PEAKING AROUND
WEDNESDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A PUSH OF
MOISTURE MIDWEEK WILL BRING AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THEN DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL
HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
22/148 AM.
OVERALL, 00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, RIDGE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, PEAKING IN STRENGTH ON TUESDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL PERSIST TO
THE EAST WITH SOME WEAK NORTHERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS.
FORECAST-WISE, MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE BUILDING
HEAT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD, WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER AND
MORE LIMITED MARINE INFLUENCE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING
FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN FACT, BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY,
AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLAIN WILL GENERALLY BE 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONALLY ON WEDNESDAY, AN
INFLUX OF SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES
MAY EXACERBATE THE HEAT A LITTLE BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME, HEAT RISK
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME AREAS OF MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS LA
COUNTY ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS. ADMITTEDLY UNDER NORMAL CONDITIONS,
THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BE MARGINAL FOR ANY HEAT PRODUCTS. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE CURRENT INFLUX OF VISITORS AND NUMEROUS OUTDOOR EVENTS
ACROSS THE COUNTY, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR LOS
ANGELES COUNTY (INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN, VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS)
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SECONDARY ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE AN INFLUX OF SOME
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES STILL INDICATE PWATS INCREASING TO 125-175%
OF NORMAL DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS VENTURA AND
LA COUNTIES. STILL A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT ANY SORT OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 5-15% POPS ACROSS VENTURA AND
LA COUNTIES WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IF ANY
SHOWERS DO DEVELOP, THEY WILL BE HIGH-BASED AND LIKELY TO PRODUCE
MINIMAL RAINFALL AT THE SURFACE. AS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS, CHANCES STILL LOOK RATHER LIMITED (AROUND 5%), BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
HAPPEN TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY, DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER CHANCES, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN,
IMPACTING THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER COASTAL VALLEYS. HOWEVER THE
AREAL EXTENT EACH NIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT LESS THAN THE NIGHT
BEFORE. AS FOR WINDS, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS, BUT ANY ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED IN THE DESERT FOOTHILLS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
22/148 AM.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS, TROUGH WILL SAG ACROSS THE STATE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE,
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
NORTHERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS NEXT WEEKEND.
FORECAST-WISE, NO DRAMATIC CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THINKING.
ON THURSDAY, THE HEAT WILL HAVE ONE LAST HURRAH ACROSS THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. SO,
HEAT ADVISORIES FOR LA COUNTY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER
IN A COOLING TREND FOR ALL AREAS WITH LOWERING THICKNESSES AND
INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS. TYPICAL ONSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER, WITH THE INCREASE IN NORTHERLY OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
22/0413Z.
AT 0400Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 1200 FEET DEEP.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 5100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF
18 DEGREES CELSIUS.
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPMD AND KWJF.
FOR ALL OTHER SITES, LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAFS.
TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT
FORECASTS. CIG CATEGORIES COULD BE EITHER MVFR OR IFR.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. THERE IS A 50%
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT DROP TO IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE THAT
MVFR VSBYS DO NOT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS IN THE 11Z-17Z TIME FRAME.
MARINE
22/147 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. ON
FRIDAY, THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ON FRIDAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 9 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 88-368-372-373-379-380-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SB/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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