397
FXUS66 KLOX 231822
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1122 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
22/1156 PM.
A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY, WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A
PUSH OF MOISTURE TODAY WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR AN
ISOLATED STORM FROM VENTURA COUNTY EASTWARD, AND THEN DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO COOL HEADING
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
23/811 AM.
***UPDATE***
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MARINE LAYER STRATUS COVERAGE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, BUT WITH A COUPLE OF DIFFERENCES.
LOW CLOUDS ARRIVED INTO THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY, AND BRIEFLY
ARRIVE (ALREADY RETREATED TO THE NORTH) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SALINAS VALLEY. AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THE BASE OF THE MARINE
LAYER AT 1400 FT AND THE TOP AT 2400 FT ACROSS THE LA BASIN.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE HEAT REMAINS ON TRACK PEAKING TODAY/TOMORROW LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PVA AND THE INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS (15%) ACROSS THE EASTERN
SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN ANTELOPE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER
ACROSS LA COUNTY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE NW QUADRANT OF AN UPPER HIGH TO THE
SE. HGTS WILL BE BE 592 DAM WHICH IS 6 DAM HIGHER THAN NORMAL. AT
THE SFC WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING MODERATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE FLOW AND 1000 FT MARINE LAYER WILL BRING
LOW CLOUDS TO ALMOST ALL OF THE CSTS AND SOME OF THE LOWER VLYS. A
SMALL EDDY IS FORECAST TO SPIN UP SO THE CLEARING TIME MIGHT BE A
LITTLE LATER THAN YDY. PWATS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE UPPER HIGH. THIS INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CREATE SOME BUILD UPS OVER THE MTNS. IT
WILL ALSO BRING A NON ZERO (~10 PERCENT) CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM
TO PORTIONS OF LA/VTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EASTERN SAN
GABRIEL MTNS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHC OF CONVECTION. BUT ITS
MUCH MORE LIKELY THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THE HIGHER HGTS AND
WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF WARMING TO THE
AREA WHICH WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
VLYS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE INTERIOR CST OF LA
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE LA VLYS. ADMITTEDLY UNDER NORMAL CONDITIONS,
THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT NECESSITATE ANY HEAT PRODUCTS.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CURRENT INFLUX OF VISITORS AND NUMEROUS
OUTDOOR EVENTS ACROSS THE COUNTY, THERE IS A HIGHER RISK FOR HEAT
RELATED PROBLEMS ESP GIVEN THAT HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL.
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHC OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY.
BUT THERE IS STILL A NON ZERO CHC. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SHOULD
HAVE SIMILAR COVERAGE AS THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY TEMP FCST. THE MOST PROBABLE
FORECAST SHOWS 1 OR 2 DEGREES OF WARMING, BUT IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
THAT MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY'S.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL CUT OFF
THE MOISTURE TAP. LOOK FOR LOWER HUMIDITIES AND NO CHC OF SHOWERS AS
A RESULT. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO THE
VLYS. HGTS WILL FALL TO ~589 DAM. THE LOWER HGTS AND STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL TEAM UP TO LOWER MAX TEMPS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES.
DESPITE THE COOLING MOST MAX TEMPS AWAY FORM THE NEARSHORE AREAS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
23/225 AM.
A PRETTY DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR
THE XTND PERIOD. A LARGE 547 DAM GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE PACNW. THIS LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY SHARP CYCLONIC
FLOW TO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MDT TO STG ONSHORE FLOW TO
THE EAST WILL DEVELOP. THERE WILL BE MDT ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTH
IN THE AFTERNOONS BUT MUCH WEAKER AND PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE
OFFSHORE FLOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE N/S DIRECTION IN THE MORNINGS.
THE INCREASE IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING JUNE
GLOOM CONDITIONS BACK TO THE CSTS AND MANY OF THE VLYS. THE ONLY
COASTAL EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SBA SOUTH COAST WHERE SOME NORTHERLY
FLOW MAY KEEP PORTIONS OF IT CLEAR.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME COOLING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
FORECAST TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY ON MONDAY. MOST AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE VLYS LEADING THE CHARGE
WITH MAX TEMPS COMING IN 4 TO 8 DEGREES UNDER NORMAL.
THE OFFSHORE PUSH ACROSS SBA COUNTY AND LOCALLY IN THE NRN LA
COUNTY MTNS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR. WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
23/1821Z.
AT 1800Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1000 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD & KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE DELAYED BY UP TO 2 HOURS AND CIG HGT BY +/-
200 FT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS LINGER LATE THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING OF
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN 08-16Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
23/300 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL GUSTS
COULD REACH 21 KTS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION IN THE EVENINGS.
MODERATE CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE OUTER WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD REACH INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AT TIMES.
MAIN CONCERN IS WIND ALTHOUGH SEAS COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS
LATER INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 88-368-372-373-379-380-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...RORKE/BLACK
AVIATION...BATZ
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...SB/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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