281
FXUS66 KLOX 252102
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
202 PM PDT THU JUN 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
25/212 AM.
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG WILL REOCCUR EACH NIGHT FROM
THE COASTS TO THE COASTAL VALLEYS, EXPANDING INTO THE VALLEYS
INTO THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER, WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
25/1120 AM.
LATE MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS MARINE STRATUS LAYER BEGINNING TO
RECEDE PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST THUS FAR. ONSHORE FLOW
IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT LOW STRATUS/FOG ALONG
COASTAL AREAS AND VALLEYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMPS. MID- TO HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO DESCEND THROUGH CA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS PRESSURE
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL DUE TO THE DEEPENING PACNW LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL FURTHER INHIBIT DAYTIME
WARMING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH TODAY MARKING THE BEGINNING OF A
COOLING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TO COOL BY SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE WE
BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN. HAVE DECREASED MAX T FROM THE NBM SOLUTION
TODAY AND TOMORROW BY BLENDING WITH YESTERDAY'S OBS AND SEVERAL
OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT ARE RUNNING COOLER. LOCATIONS NEAR THE
COAST WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S WHILE AREAS FURTHER
INLAND WILL REACH THE UPPER-80S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE
NORTHERLY AND INCREASE BEGINNING TOMORROW EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH SATURDAY, MAKING THIS THE BREEZIEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME THERE IS A 45% TO 80% PROBABILITY OF
35 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES ON SATURDAY.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENINGS.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
25/1133 AM.
PACNW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ROTATING NORTHWARD INTO
CANADA WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER WASHINGTON EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER IN THE DETAILS HEADING
INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT ALL FEATURE GENERAL TROUGHING FOR
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER CA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WITH LOW STRATUS/FOG ALONG COASTAL
AREAS AND VALLEYS EACH EVENING AND MORNING. WINDS WILL RUN LIGHTER
NEXT WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT INTO
MID- TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
AVIATION
25/2101Z.
AT 1715Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2200 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS. TIMING OF
FLIGHT CAT CHANGES COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND CIG HEIGHTS
+/- 300 FT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE THAT
CIGS DO NOT CLEAR, AND A 30% CHANCE OF INTERMITTENT CIGS FROM
25/21Z THROUGH 26/01Z. GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR CIGS 010-018,
BUT LIKELY CIGS FALL TO AROUND IFR 008 FROM 26/05Z-10Z.
NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL OF IFR CIGS SHOULD
BE ACCURATE WITHIN +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECAST.
NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
25/134 PM.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS
THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND WILL EXPAND TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SCA WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY, AND WILL REACH INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AT TIMES (MORE OFTEN THAN
NOT). LOCAL GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT NEAR PT. CONCEPTION SATURDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL NEAR 10 FT SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. BEYOND, CONDITIONS LOOK
TO QUIET DOWN A BIT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...CROPP
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...PHILLIPS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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