538
FXUS66 KLOX 271523
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
823 AM PDT SAT JUN 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
27/821 AM.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG WILL REOCCUR EACH NIGHT
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL VERY GRADUALLY COOL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE STABILIZING. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY MILD ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
27/822 AM.
***UPDATE***
WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND WESTERN ANTELOPE VALLEY FOOTHILLS, AND
BEGINNING AT 5 PM PDT ACROSS THE SW SANTA BARBARA COAST AND THE
WESTERN SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAIN RANGE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE 20
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH. WINDS HAVE BEEN LATE TO
REALIZE ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY, WITH GUSTS LARGELY BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLD STILL EARLY THIS MORNING. OFFSHORE SUNDOWNER
WINDS IN THE SANTA BARBARA ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE
TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARD NORMAL OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S IN THE VALLEYS, FAIRLY MILD
WINDS WITH GUSTS BELOW 15 TO 20 MPH OUTSIDE OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY,
AND NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE FALLING OUT OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LAST NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS ADVANCED WELL INLAND OVER THE COASTS AND COASTAL VALLEYS,
AND INTO INTERIOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY, THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY
AND UP THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RECUR TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. TODAY LA COUNTY CLEARED MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
VENTURA COAST AND VALLEYS, AND THE HREF LOW CLOUD COVER FORECAST
INDICATES THAT THIS IS LIKELY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. OVER PORTIONS OF
VENTURA COUNTY, CLEARING MAY BE DELAYED OR LIMITED TOMORROW. THIS
DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER AND SLOW/LIMITED
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR WINDS, THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR SW SANTA BARBARA COUNTY (NW
WINDS) AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS (SW WINDS) ARE INCREASING
SLOWLY, WITH A CHANCE OF FALLING SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVELS (45
MPH). SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS IN SW SBA COUNTY, WITH STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BETWEEN KSBA AND KSMX.
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST ALONG WITH CONTINUED
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND AN EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER WILL RESULT IN A
COOLING TREND FOR THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST
WILL CHANGE LITTLE, BUT AWAY FROM THE COAST COOLING OF 2 TO 6
DEGREES IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR INTERIOR.
WEAKER COOLING OF 2 TO 3 DEGREES IS EXPECTED GOING INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
27/338 AM.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SEASONABLY HEALTHY ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. EXPECTING AN EXPANSIVE MARINE LAYER IN DEPTH AND AREAL
EXTENT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE STARTING TUESDAY AS THE
SUNDOWNER WINDS WEAKEN, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO
EXPAND OVER ALL COASTAL AREAS. MOST COMPUTER PROJECTIONS AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FAVOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM STARTING
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME WARMING
AND DECREASE IN THE MARINE LAYER. THERE IS A RATHER LARGE ENVELOPE
IN THE ENSEMBLE SUITES HOWEVER AS TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THAT CHANGE.
SO LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND AS WE HEAD INTO THE 250TH JULY 4TH
WEEKEND, BUT STAY TUNED AS TO HOW MUCH WARMING TO PLAN FOR.
AVIATION
27/1026Z.
AT 10Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 5000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD KWJF WITH ABNORMALLY STRONG
AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. POSSIBLE UDDF NEAR MOUNTAINS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING (+/- 3 HOURS) AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES (+/- 1
CATEGORY.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING (+/- 3 HOURS). HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY EAST
WIND COMPONENT STAYING UNDER 8 KNOTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING (+/- 3 HOURS).
MARINE
27/812 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH SAN NICOLAS ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER. LOCAL GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY
SEE SCA WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LOWERING CHANCES TO
FOLLOW. THE REST OF THE WATERS WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER SCA, EXCEPT
FOR LOCALIZED WINDS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS TODAY.
ALL WATERS WILL SEE SHORT-PERIOD CHOPPY SEAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH TODAY LIKELY BEING THE WORST. SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
WILL NEAR SCA LEVELS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6
AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...CROPP/RK
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...RK/LUND
SYNOPSIS...CROPP
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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