015
FXUS66 KLOX 280321
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
821 PM PDT SAT JUN 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
27/821 AM.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG WILL REOCCUR EACH NIGHT TO
MORNING PERIOD THROUGH LATE THIS COMING WEEK. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS, BUT REMAIN FAIRLY MILD
ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)
27/817 PM.
***UPDATE***
OVERALL, A RATHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST
SOME VERY PATCHY STRATUS FLOATING OVER THE AREA. AS FOR WINDS,
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING 35-50 MPH, ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY (AND THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS) AS WELL AS
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE.
FORECAST-WISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THE SHORT
TERM. THROUGH SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN, DRAPED
OVER THE AREA, THEN A LOW WILL DROP ALONG THE CA COAST MONDAY THEN
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON MONDAY A
COUPLE OF UPPER LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE, MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO
THE EAST WILL PERSIST WITH WEAKENING NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WINDS. CURRENT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. SO, CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES LOOK
TO BE VALID AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEIR EXPIRATION
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY, BUT ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN
LOCALIZED.
OTHERWISE, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DEEP MARINE LAYER THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
27/1224 PM.
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF STABLE TEMPERATURES, ENSEMBLES INDICATE A
CHANGE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN. THIS
MARKS A TRANSITION TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING THURSDAY
AND NEAR-NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS VARIATION AMONGST ENSEMBLES AS TO THE
STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH RESULTS IN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO HOW WARM OUR VALLEYS WILL GET DURING THE HOLIDAY. THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES THE MOST WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON JULY 4TH BEING THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WITH FEWER
VALLEY AREAS WARMING INTO THE 90S.
AVIATION
27/2223Z.
AT 2100Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 4200 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 5500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTS FOR KWJF AND
KPMD.
FOR ALL OTHER SITES, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAFS AS TIMING OF
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
FOR KSBA, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS 09Z-18Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. IN THE 12Z-16Z
TIME FRAME, THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND
7 KNOTS.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
MARINE
27/729 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH SAN NICOLAS ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER. LOCAL GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEARSHORE WATERS IN THE SB
CHANNEL AND ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WILL LIKELY SEE SCA WINDS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT, WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE SUNDAY
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE WATERS WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER SCA.
ALL WATERS WILL SEE SHORT-PERIOD CHOPPY SEAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL NEAR SCA LEVELS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE
650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON/CROPP
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RK/LUND/CC
SYNOPSIS...CROPP
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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