440
FXUS66 KLOX 140621
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1121 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
13/726 PM.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK, WITH DANGEROUS EXPECTED
FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE LA AND VENTURA INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (MON-THU)
13/814 PM.
***UPDATE***
TEMPERATURES ROSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY, AND WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY, CONDITIONS WERE VERY WARM AND
MUGGY IN SPITE OF SOME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WERE 95 TO 100 DEGREES
IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS, OTHERWISE 80S TO LOWER 90S WERE OBSERVED
IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN. CLOSER TO THE
BEACHES THE HIGHS WERE IN THE 70S. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE
EASTERN SAN GABRIELS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
NO LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFFECTED THE
AREAS MENTIONED WITH AMOUNTS OF 0.12 INCH OR LESS.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS, PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY, AND THEN
DECREASING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE
IS CAUSED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BUILD INTO
THE MID 90S TO AROUND 105 IN THE VALLEYS, AND MID TO UPPER 80S IN
THE INTERIOR COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LA (89
DEGREES) AND MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. DURING THE HEAT WAVE, IT IS VERY
IMPORTANT TO AVOID THE HEAT OF THE DAY AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 10AM AND 7PM.
AS FOR THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE, IT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH DECREASING SOME. THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, GENERALLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN SAN
GABRIELS AND THE HIGHER VENTURA MOUNTAINS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FACTOR WILL BE THE EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AND HOT SUNDOWNERS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE AND DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL AREAS OF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST. WINDS WILL START UP TUESDAY EVENING
BUT PEAK WEDNESDAY EVENING GUSTING TO 35-50 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. ADD TO THAT
THE VERY HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS,
TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE 90S ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
AND POSSIBLY AROUND 100-102 IN THE FOOTHILLS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
2-4 DEGREES OF COOLING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL
BE 6-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
13/154 PM.
VERY GRADUAL LOWERING OF MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS LATER THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND, COMBINED WITH THE EVENTUAL INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE
FROM DISTANT, LOW-LATITUDE EAST PACIFIC STORMS BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUDINESS, ALONG WITH REINFORCING ONSHORE FLOW, WILL ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOLING TO NEAR-NORMAL READINGS
BY NEXT WEEKEND. HOT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY
WHEN HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT. WHILE A FEW DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND OWING TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE,
CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TOO MINIMAL FOR
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ACROSS COASTAL AREAS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
14/0620Z.
AT 0534Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS 1000 FT. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2100 FT WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 26 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KBUR KVNY, KPMD AND KWJF.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF TAFS WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHC OF NO LOW CLOUDS. 30 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CIGS WHEN IFR ARE
FORECAST AND VICE VERSA. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDS WILL
ARRIVE WITHIN AN HOUR OF FCST.
THERE IS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF TSRA AT KPMD/KWJF FROM 14/18Z
THROUGH 15/01Z. THESE STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ERRATIC WINDS, TURBULENCE AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHC OF NO LOW CLOUDS. IF LOW CLOUDS DO ARRIVE THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHC OF OVC004 CONDS. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDS WILL
ARRIVE BETWEEN 16Z-18Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT
EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
13/740 PM.
NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO 20% CHANCE OF
GALES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD
OVER 10 FEET IN CONJUNCTION WITH THESE WINDS. THE ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY PARTS
OF THIS WEEK, THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
BEACHES
13/740 PM.
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND BREAKING WAVES WITH ELEVATED SURF ARE
EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS AND THE BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES,
VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES, AS ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THESE AREAS. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENINGS, GIVEN ABNORMALLY
HIGH TIDES OF 7.0 TO 7.6 FEET. LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, DISTANT STORMS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA COULD PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHERLY SWELL RESULTING IN
EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT BEACH HAZARDS BY THE WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONES
38-88-349>353-356>358-368>375-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM
PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
87-341>345-347-348-354-355-362-366-367-376-377-549-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR ZONES 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 349>353-376>378. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/CC
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...BLACK/KL
BEACHES...COHEN/DB
SYNOPSIS...MW/COHEN/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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