016
FXUS66 KLOX 141131
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
431 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
14/1207 AM.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH DANGEROUS
EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE LA AND VENTURA INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
14/228 AM.
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS CA THE STATE WILL BE UNDER THE WESTERN
EDGE OF LARGE AND HOT UPPER HIGH. HGTS WILL WOBBLE BETWEEN 590
DAM AND 592 DAM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE THE MOST
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE FORECAST. THE E/W GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE
WEAKLY ONSHORE IN THE MORNING BECOMING MDT ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS GRADIENT WILL ALSO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
EACH DAY. THE N/S GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE WEAKLY OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING AND WEAKLY ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHC THAT THERE WILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH HGTS AND WEAKER THAN NORMAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL TEAM UP
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY TO BRING TWO DAYS OF WARMING. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE
ANTELOPE VLY WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE 8 TO 10 DEGREES OF WARMING AND
THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE A STRONGER SEA BREEZE WILL BRING A LITTLE
COOLING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH ANOTHER 3 TO 6
DEGREES OF WARMING ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS WARMING WILL
BRING 100 TO 110 DEGREE HEAT TO THE VLYS, LOWER MTN ELEVATIONS AND
THE FAR INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. THE INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING SOME COOLING ON THURSDAY, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE THE
HEAT RISK. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
PLEASE SEE THE PRODUCT LAXNPWLOX FOR ALL OF THE DETAILS. DURING
THE HEAT WAVE, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO AVOID THE HEAT OF THE DAY
AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 10AM AND 7PM.
THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO AND
OVER THE AREA WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH'S CIRCULATION PATTERN. THIS
MOSITURE WILL BRING A 20-40 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VLY. THE HIGHEST CHC OF CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS AND THE HIGHER VENTURA
MOUNTAINS.
STRONG SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST WITH
OVER 4MB OF AN OFFSHORE PUSH FROM BOTH THE KSMX AND KBFL
GRADIENTS. NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-00 MPH WILL AFFECT MOST
OF THE SBA SOUTH COAST TONIGHT. THE SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH GUST 35-50 MPH (LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FOOTHILLS). THESE WINDS WITH THEIR ADIABATIC COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING COULD BRING TEMPS IN THE 90S ALL THE WAY TO THE BEACHES
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE FOOTHILLS. THE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER AND A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH
COAST AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
14/226 AM.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM.
HGTS WILL SIT AROUND 592 DAM THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SFC GRADIENTS
WILL BE THE BIGGER NEWS AS THEY WILL BOTH TREND ONSHORE AND BECOME
MDT TO STG.
THERE WILL BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE
CSTS XTNG LOCALLY INTO THE VLYS.
MAX TEMPS WILL NOSE DIVE 6 TO 12 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THIS COOLING
WILL BRING MAX TEMPS TO OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL. AFTER
FRIDAY TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY AS THE SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH.
PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH AND THERE WILL BE A NON ZERO CHC
OF SOME AFTERNOON MTN SHOWERS, BUT MORE LIKELY JUST SOME CLOUD BUILD
UPS. LONG RANGE MDLS DO SHOW A GENEROUS UPTICK IN MOISTURE DUE TO
THE MOVEMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION
14/1130Z.
AT 0832Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS 1000 FT. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2100 FT WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 26 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KSBP, KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD
AND KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KSMX, KOXR, KCMA AND KLGB WITH A
30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS 13Z-17Z.
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF FOR KSMO AND KLAX WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
LOW MVFR CIGS AND THAT VFR CONDS ARRIVING WITHIN AN HOUR OF FCST.
THERE IS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF TSRA AT KPMD/KWJF FROM 14/18Z
THROUGH 15/01Z. THESE STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ERRATIC WINDS, TURBULENCE AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
BKN010-012 CIGS THROUGH 17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDS WILL
ARRIVE BETWEEN 16Z-18Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT
EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
14/153 AM.
NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO 20% CHANCE OF GALES LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER 10 FEET
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THESE WINDS. THE ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL
EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND NEARSHORE WATERS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AT TIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD, MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY
DRIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY PARTS OF THIS WEEK,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
BEACHES
14/154 AM.
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND BREAKING WAVES WITH ELEVATED SURF ARE
EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS AND THE BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES,
VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES, AS ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THESE AREAS. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENINGS, GIVEN ABNORMALLY
HIGH TIDES OF 7.0 TO 7.6 FEET. LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, DISTANT STORMS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA COULD PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHERLY SWELL RESULTING IN
EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT BEACH HAZARDS BY THE WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8
PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
38-88-349>353-356>358-368>375-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8
PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
87-341>345-347-348-354-355-362-366-367-376-377-549-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR ZONES 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 349>353-376>378. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...BLACK/KL
BEACHES...COHEN/DB
SYNOPSIS...MW/COHEN/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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