467
FXUS66 KLOX 141728
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1028 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
14/904 AM.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH DANGEROUS
EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE LA AND VENTURA INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
14/937 AM.
***UPDATE***
HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER AGAIN TODAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TODAY IS THE
DECREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE AS THOSE HAVE
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, PW'S REMAIN AROUND 1.75" SO
EVEN THOUGH SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN AROUND
30-40% BY THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING STORMS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS. GIVEN THE
HIGH WATER CONTENT AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH CAPES IN
THE 500-800J/KG RANGE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS CA THE STATE WILL BE UNDER THE WESTERN
EDGE OF LARGE AND HOT UPPER HIGH. HGTS WILL WOBBLE BETWEEN 590
DAM AND 592 DAM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE THE MOST
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE FORECAST. THE E/W GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE
WEAKLY ONSHORE IN THE MORNING BECOMING MDT ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS GRADIENT WILL ALSO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
EACH DAY. THE N/S GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE WEAKLY OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING AND WEAKLY ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHC THAT THERE WILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH HGTS AND WEAKER THAN NORMAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL TEAM UP
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY TO BRING TWO DAYS OF WARMING. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE
ANTELOPE VLY WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE 8 TO 10 DEGREES OF WARMING AND
THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE A STRONGER SEA BREEZE WILL BRING A LITTLE
COOLING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH ANOTHER 3 TO 6
DEGREES OF WARMING ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS WARMING WILL
BRING 100 TO 110 DEGREE HEAT TO THE VLYS, LOWER MTN ELEVATIONS AND
THE FAR INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. THE INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING SOME COOLING ON THURSDAY, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE THE
HEAT RISK. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
PLEASE SEE THE PRODUCT LAXNPWLOX FOR ALL OF THE DETAILS. DURING
THE HEAT WAVE, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO AVOID THE HEAT OF THE DAY
AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 10AM AND 7PM.
THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO AND
OVER THE AREA WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH'S CIRCULATION PATTERN. THIS
MOSITURE WILL BRING A 20-40 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VLY. THE HIGHEST CHC OF CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS AND THE HIGHER VENTURA
MOUNTAINS.
STRONG SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST WITH
OVER 4MB OF AN OFFSHORE PUSH FROM BOTH THE KSMX AND KBFL
GRADIENTS. NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-00 MPH WILL AFFECT MOST
OF THE SBA SOUTH COAST TONIGHT. THE SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH GUST 35-50 MPH (LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FOOTHILLS). THESE WINDS WITH THEIR ADIABATIC COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING COULD BRING TEMPS IN THE 90S ALL THE WAY TO THE BEACHES
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE FOOTHILLS. THE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER AND A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH
COAST AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
14/226 AM.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM.
HGTS WILL SIT AROUND 592 DAM THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SFC GRADIENTS
WILL BE THE BIGGER NEWS AS THEY WILL BOTH TREND ONSHORE AND BECOME
MDT TO STG.
THERE WILL BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE
CSTS XTNG LOCALLY INTO THE VLYS.
MAX TEMPS WILL NOSE DIVE 6 TO 12 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THIS COOLING
WILL BRING MAX TEMPS TO OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL. AFTER
FRIDAY TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY AS THE SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH.
PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH AND THERE WILL BE A NON ZERO CHC
OF SOME AFTERNOON MTN SHOWERS, BUT MORE LIKELY JUST SOME CLOUD BUILD
UPS. LONG RANGE MDLS DO SHOW A GENEROUS UPTICK IN MOISTURE DUE TO
THE MOVEMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION
14/1720Z.
AT 1610Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS 1100 FT. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3000 FT WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 26 C.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS AT ALL SITES, HIGHEST AWAY
FROM COASTS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR LIFR TO IFR CIGS AT
KLAX/KSMO/KLGB/KSMX AFTER 08Z (EXCEPT AFTER 04Z AT KSMX).
THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD/KWJF FROM 19Z
TO 02Z. BIGGEST THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
50 KT, TURBULENCE, AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR.
KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
BKN004-007 CIGS AFTER 08Z, WITH BEST CHANCES BKN005-007. NO
SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 10% CHANCE FOR 10KT WEST WINDS
FROM 01Z-04Z.
MARINE
14/905 AM.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO 20% CHANCE OF
GALES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
NEAR 10 FEET IN CONJUNCTION WITH THESE WINDS. THE ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
NORTHWEST SWELL LOWERS. HHOWEVER, SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SEAS FROM A
SOUTHERLY SWELL ASSOCAITED WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST WILL IMPACT OUR WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
BEACHES
14/905 AM.
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND BREAKING WAVES WITH ELEVATED SURF ARE
EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS AND THE BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES,
VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES, AS ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EVENINGS, GIVEN ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES OF 7.0 TO 7.6
FEET. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THESE AREAS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, DISTANT STORMS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA COULD PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHERLY SWELL
RESULTING IN EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT BEACH HAZARDS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 38-88-349>353-356>358-368>375-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES
87-341>345-347-348-354-355-362-366-367-376-377-549-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR ZONES 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 349>353-376>378. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
BEACHES...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW/COHEN/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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