311
FXUS66 KLOX 142118
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
218 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
14/131 PM.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH DANGEROUS
EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE LA AND VENTURA INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
14/208 PM.
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS IS STARTING TO LOOK INTERESTING,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN VENTURA MOUNTAINS AND NEAR
WRIGHTWOOD. HE RES FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES FOR A STORM OR TWO IN THE VENTURA MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
BORDER WITH KERN COUNTY VERSUS THE WRIGHTWOOD AREA.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY HAVE BEEN A MIXED BAG WITH
INLAND AREAS TRENDING WARMER (IN SOME CASES 10-15 DEGREES WARMER)
BUT COASTAL AREAS EITHER LITTLE CHANGE OR COOLER DUE TO AN
UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW.
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY THE
SUMMER SO FAR. PW'S ARE SLOWLY DECREASING BUT HUMIDITIES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND ADDING TO THE ALREADY HIGH HEAT STRESS.
RECORDS ARE VERY HIGH TOMORROW AND PROBABLY OUT OF REACH IN MOST
AREAS BUT SOME ISOLATED RECORDS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERALL, HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10-17 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, RANGING FROM 105-110
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR AREAS, INCLUDING PASO ROBLES AND WOODLAND
HILLS, LOW TO MID 90S DOWNTOWN, AND LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. THIS
IS BASED ON A FORECAST OF LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TOMORROW AROUND 2MB
WHICH WOULD DELAY THE COOLING SEA BREEZE. IF GRADIENTS REMAIN
ONSHORE HIGHS LIKELY WOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
2-5 DEGREES OF COOLING ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND AN ADDITIONAL
4-8 DEGREES OF COOLING ON FRIDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. PW'S CONTINUE TO
FALL BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL SO STILL MORE HUMIDITY THAN
USUAL BUT CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN STORMS WILL BE 10% OR LESS AFTER
TODAY.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
14/217 PM.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AFTER FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL MOSTLY BE 3 DEGREES OR
LESS EITHER WAY AND GENERALLY TIED TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TRENDS. THERE IS ANOTHER LITTLE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THIS
WEEKEND AS A DECAYING TROPICAL STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. THIS
COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER CHANCE OF ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTIVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND PW'S INCREASE BACK UP TO AROUND 1.5", SO AT
THE VERY LEAST HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MAKING IT FEEL
HOTTER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS.
AVIATION
14/1720Z.
AT 1610Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS 1100 FT. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3000 FT WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 26 C.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS AT ALL SITES, HIGHEST AWAY
FROM COASTS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR LIFR TO IFR CIGS AT
KLAX/KSMO/KLGB/KSMX AFTER 08Z (EXCEPT AFTER 04Z AT KSMX).
THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD/KWJF FROM 19Z
TO 02Z. BIGGEST THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
50 KT, TURBULENCE, AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR.
KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
BKN004-007 CIGS AFTER 08Z, WITH BEST CHANCES BKN005-007. NO
SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 10% CHANCE FOR 10KT WEST WINDS
FROM 01Z-04Z.
MARINE
14/201 PM.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO 40% CHANCE OF GALES LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A GALE WATCH AT THIS POINT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
NEAR 10 FEET IN CONJUNCTION WITH THESE WINDS. THE ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
NORTHWEST SWELL LOWERS. HOWEVER, SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SEAS FROM A
SOUTHERLY SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST WILL IMPACT OUR WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
BEACHES
14/201 PM.
HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS AND BREAKING WAVES WITH ELEVATED SURF ARE
EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS AND THE BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES,
VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES, AS ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EVENINGS, GIVEN ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES OF 7.0 TO 7.6
FEET. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH A CHANCE IT WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, DISTANT STORMS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA COULD PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHERLY SWELL
RESULTING IN EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT BEACH HAZARDS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 38-88-349>353-356>358-368>375-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES
87-341>345-347-348-354-355-362-366-367-376-377-549-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONES 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 349>353-376>378. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
BEACHES...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW/COHEN/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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