270
FXUS66 KLOX 151021
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
321 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
15/311 AM.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, WITH DANGEROUS HEAT
EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE LA
AND VENTURA INTERIOR MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY. FURTHER COOLING WILL BRING MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL ON FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
15/311 AM.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE STATE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WEST
SIDE OF A LARGE HOT UPPER HIGH THAT IS DOMINATING THE COUNTRY.
HGTS WILL BE FAIRLY CONSTANT AROUND 591 DAM. THE SFC GRADIENTS
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE
SHORT TERM.
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE WEAKEST ONSHORE FLOW (THERE
MAY EVEN BE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH IN THE MORNING). THE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL BE LARGELY ABSENT AND ASIDE FOR A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS IT WILL BE A SUNNY DAY. THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND
WARMING AIRMASS WILL BRING 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF WARMING TO THE AREA.
THIS WILL PUMP UP TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR COASTAL SECTIONS TO
THE UPPER 80S AND MID 90S. IT WILL BE ROASTY TOASTY IN THE VLYS,
LOWER MTN ELEVATIONS AND FAR INTERIOR WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 100
TO 110 DEGREES (WARMEST IN THE WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VLY). RECORD
HIGHS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THESE VALUES SO ITS LIKELY THAT FEW
IF ANY RECORDS WILL FALL. TODAY'S HIGHS WILL BE 12 TO 18 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THESE HIGHS COUPLED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE OVERNIGHT
LOWS PRESENT A DANGEROUS HEAT ENVIRONMENT. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR MANY AREAS - PLEASE SEE THE PRODUCT LAXNPWLOX
FOR ALL OF THE DETAILS.
SUNDOWNER WINDS TONIGHT BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH COULD BRING VERY
HOT EVENING TEMPS WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT COOLING TO THE SBA SOUTH
COAST.
ONSHORE TRENDS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WILL BE AT WORST PATCHY ACROSS SOME BEACHES AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY. THE ONSHORE TRENDS WILL BRING 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF COOLING
TO ALL AREAS. THIS COOLING, WHILE CERTAINLY WELCOME, WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE THE HEAT RISK, ESP AFTER ANOTHER NIGHT OF
ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS.
THE BIG COOL DOWN WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. AN EDDY WILL LIKELY HELP BRING LOW CLOUDS TO MOST OF THE
CSTS AND MAYBE THE LOWER VLYS AS WELL. 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF COOLING
ACROSS THE BOARD WILL ELIMINATE THE HEAT RISK FOR THE AREA.
THERE WAS HARDLY ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY YDY AND WITH PW FORECAST TO
DROP SOME MORE TODAY THERE IS NO MONSOON THREAT TODAY.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
15/310 AM.
FAIRLY DULL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK. THE LARGE UPPER HIGH DOES NOT MOVE MUCH AT ALL AND THE STATE
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE. HGTS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH AND
WILL HOVER AROUND 591 DAM. MDT TO STG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. OFFSHORE TRENDS WILL START ON
TUESDAY.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS TO THE CSTS (THE SBA SOUTH COAST MAY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS
THE SUNDOWNERS WILL CONTINUE). THE HGTS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER SMOOSHED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STRATUS OUT OF
THE LOWER VLYS.
MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SOME ON SATURDAY AND WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A
FEW DEGREES UNDER NORMAL. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ON SUN AND
MON. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE TUE AND WED AS THE OFFSHORE TRENDS
DEVELOP.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN PWATS SUNDAY AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE THE TEMPS FEEL A LITTLE
MORE UNCOMFORTABLE AND COULD LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION OVER THE
MTNS IN THE AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION
15/1011Z.
AT 0832Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 700 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2900 FT WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 29 C.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS AT ALL SITES, HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE AWAY FROM COASTS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR LIFR TO
IFR CIGS AT KLAX/KSMO/KLGB 12Z-17Z.
KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF
BKN004-007 CIGS AFTER 12Z-17Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT
EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF
MARINE
15/311 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO
40% CHANCE OF GALES LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WATCH AT THIS POINT. THIS
DETERMINATION (GALE WARNING OR NOT) WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH
THIS MORNING'S FORECAST PACKAGE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
NEAR 10 FEET IN CONJUNCTION WITH THESE WINDS. THE ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
NORTHWEST SWELL LOWERS. HOWEVER, SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SEAS FROM A
SOUTHERLY SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST WILL IMPACT OUR WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 38-88-349>353-356>358-368>375-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES
87-341>345-347-348-354-355-362-366-367-376-377-549-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 349>353-376>378. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...LEWIS/DB
SYNOPSIS...MW/COHEN/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page