494
FXUS66 KLOX 152058
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
158 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
15/106 PM.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY AND THE LA AND VENTURA INTERIOR MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
15/143 PM.
THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS HAPPENING NOW (1PM) WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AS WELL AS THE SANTA
CLARITA VALLEY, INTERIOR SLO, AND THE DESERTS. GRADIENTS ENDED UP
STAYING LIGHTLY ONSHORE WHICH LIKELY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE INTENSE HEAT IS
CREATING SOME CUMULUS OVER OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT CHANCES FOR ANY
STORMS ARE UNDER 10%. BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY AND OVERNIGHT IS THE
POTENTIAL GUSTY SUNDOWNERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND
POSSIBLY LOWER 100S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. GRADIENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS EVENING BETWEEN -2MB AND -3MB RESULTING IN
WINDS IN THE 30-45MPH RANGE WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GRADIENTS WILL BE TRENDING ONSHORE, LEADING
TO EARLIER ONSET OF COOLING OCEAN BREEZES AND OVERALL LOWER
TEMPERATURES. COOLING WILL BE MINOR THURSDAY, GENERALLY 4 DEGREES
OF LESS, BUT THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING FRIDAY BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
BY THE WEEKEND, IF NOT BEFORE, THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
15/156 PM.
FAIRLY DULL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK. THE LARGE UPPER HIGH DOES NOT MOVE MUCH AT ALL AND THE STATE
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE. HGTS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH AND
WILL HOVER AROUND 591 DAM. MDT TO STG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. OFFSHORE TRENDS WILL START ON
TUESDAY.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS TO THE CSTS (THE SBA SOUTH COAST MAY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS
THE SUNDOWNERS WILL CONTINUE). THE HGTS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER SMOOSHED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STRATUS OUT OF
THE LOWER VLYS.
MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SOME ON SATURDAY AND WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A
FEW DEGREES UNDER NORMAL. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ON SUN AND
MON. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE TUE AND WED AS THE OFFSHORE TRENDS
DEVELOP.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN PWATS SUNDAY AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE THE TEMPS FEEL A LITTLE
MORE UNCOMFORTABLE AND COULD LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION OVER THE
MTNS IN THE AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION
15/1735Z.
AT 1519Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 800 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3600 FT WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 28 C.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS AT ALL SITES, HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE AWAY FROM COASTS. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR LIFR TO
IFR CIGS AT KLAX/KSMO/KLGB 08Z-17Z. THERE IS A 3% CHANCE FOR VFR
CONDS TO PREVAIL AT KSMX.
KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF
BKN004-007 CIGS AFTER 12Z-17Z. ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 6 KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
15/111 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A 25%
CHANCE OF GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO NEAR 10 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL AND NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
NORTHWEST SWELL LOWERS. HOWEVER, SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SEAS FROM A
SOUTHERLY SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPCIAL ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA WILL IMPACT OUR WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MCUH OF
NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
15/111 PM.
HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS AND BREAKING WAVES WITH ELEVATED SURF ARE
EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS AND THE BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES,
VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES, AS ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EVENINGS, GIVEN ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES OF 7.0 TO 7.6
FEET. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.
BEGINNING SUNDAY, STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA COULD PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHERLY SWELL
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL AND POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS
BEACH CONDITIONS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 38-88-349>353-356>358-368>375-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES
87-341>345-347-348-354-355-362-366-367-376-377-549-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 349>353. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
349>353-376>378. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
BEACHES...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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