555
FXUS66 KLOX 160519
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1019 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
15/106 PM.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY AND THE LA AND VENTURA INTERIOR MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)
15/1018 PM.
***UPDATE***
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY, ABOUT 8
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOT, HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS A COOL DOWN FRIDAY. NORTHERLY
SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS EVENING OVER THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN TOMORROW MORNING, AND INCREASE
AGAIN TO ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
MOSTLY ON TRACK, BUT DID REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
TODAY WAS TOASTY WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN SAN
FERNANDO VALLEY AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY, INTERIOR
SLO, AND THE DESERTS. GRADIENTS ENDED UP STAYING LIGHTLY ONSHORE
WHICH LIKELY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE INTENSE HEAT IS CREATING SOME CUMULUS OVER
OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS ARE UNDER 10%.
BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY AND OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL GUSTY
SUNDOWNERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 100S IN
THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS
EVENING BETWEEN -2MB AND -3MB RESULTING IN WINDS IN THE 30-45MPH
RANGE WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GRADIENTS WILL BE TRENDING ONSHORE, LEADING
TO EARLIER ONSET OF COOLING OCEAN BREEZES AND OVERALL LOWER
TEMPERATURES. COOLING WILL BE MINOR THURSDAY, GENERALLY 4 DEGREES
OF LESS, BUT THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING FRIDAY BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
BY THE WEEKEND, IF NOT BEFORE, THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
15/156 PM.
FAIRLY DULL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK. THE LARGE UPPER HIGH DOES NOT MOVE MUCH AT ALL AND THE STATE
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE. HGTS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH AND
WILL HOVER AROUND 591 DAM. MDT TO STG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. OFFSHORE TRENDS WILL START ON
TUESDAY.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS TO THE CSTS (THE SBA SOUTH COAST MAY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS
THE SUNDOWNERS WILL CONTINUE). THE HGTS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER SMOOSHED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STRATUS OUT OF
THE LOWER VLYS.
MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SOME ON SATURDAY AND WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A
FEW DEGREES UNDER NORMAL. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ON SUN AND
MON. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE TUE AND WED AS THE OFFSHORE TRENDS
DEVELOP.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN PWATS SUNDAY AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE THE TEMPS FEEL A LITTLE
MORE UNCOMFORTABLE AND COULD LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION OVER THE
MTNS IN THE AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION
16/0133Z.
AT 2311Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 800 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2700 FT WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 31 C.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS AT ALL SITES, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
AWAY FROM COASTS. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR LIFR TO IFR CIGS AT
KLAX/KSMO/KLGB 08Z-17Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CIG ARRIVAL TIME AT
KSMX.
KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF
BKN004-007 CIGS AFTER 09Z. ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 6 KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
15/804 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A 25%
CHANCE OF GALES LATER INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO NEAR 10 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL AND NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
NORTHWEST SWELL LOWERS. HOWEVER, SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SEAS FROM A
SOUTHERLY SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPCIAL ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA WILL IMPACT OUR WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
15/821 PM.
HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS AND BREAKING WAVES WITH ELEVATED SURF ARE
EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS AND THE BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES,
VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES, AS ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING, GIVEN ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES OF 7.0 TO 7.4 FEET. A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
BEGINNING SUNDAY, STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA COULD PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHERLY SWELL
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL AND POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS
BEACH CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING LATE NEXT WEEK.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 38-88-349>353-356>358-368>375-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES
87-341>345-347-348-354-355-362-366-367-376-377-549-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 349>353. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
349>353-376>378. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MW
AVIATION...PHILLIPS/LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
BEACHES...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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