499
FXUS66 KLOX 160954
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
254 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
16/253 AM.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY AND THE LA AND VENTURA INTERIOR MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING. A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
16/253 AM.
WEDNESDAY WAS THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS HEAT EVENT. TODAY WILL COOL
3 TO 5 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS COOLING WILL BRING
HIGHS IN THE 90S TO MOST VLY LOCATIONS WITH ONLY LOCAL 100-103
DEGREE READINGS. BUT EVEN WITH THIS COOLING, TEMPS WILL REMAIN
DANGEROUSLY HIGH ESP WHEN COUPLED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT ARE NOT
EVEN GETTING OUT OF THE 70S. SKIES TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS AT A FEW BEACHES IN THE EARLY
MORNING.
2 MB ONSHORE TRENDS BOTH TO THE N AND E ALONG WITH A WEAK EDDY ON
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TO MUCH OF COASTAL
AREAS. THE MARINE LAYER AS WELL AS THE ONSHORE TRENDS WILL BRING A
SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN MAX TEMPS OF 4 TO 8 LOCALLY 10 DEGREES. THIS
COOLING WILL BRING MAX TEMPS TO WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF NORMAL.
ANOTHER 1 OR 2 MB INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL
BRING THE AFTERNOON GRADIENTS UP INTO MDT TO STG LEVELS. NOT ONLY
WILL THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS COVER THE CSTS THEY WILL XTND LOCALLY
INTO THE VLYS. CLEARING WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN USUAL AS
WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH FROM FRIDAY'S VALUES.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
16/253 AM.
NOT TOO MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE XTND FCST. THE LARGE AND VERY WARM
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CAMPED OUT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY. HGTS WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WILL BE NEAR 592 DAM.
MOST OF THE ACTUAL WEATHER WILL BE CONTROLLED BY THE SFC
GRADIENTS. LOOK FOR STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND THEN GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF BOTH THE E/W AND N/S GRADIENTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE CSTS EACH DAY.
THE HGTS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MARINE LAYER SMOOSHED
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STRATUS OUT (OR MOSTLY OUT) OF THE LOWER VLYS.
MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM SATURDAY'S SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL READING THROUGH MONDAY. 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF WARMING IS ON TAP
FOR TUE AND WED AS THE OFFSHORE TRENDS CONTINUE.
THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PWATS SUNDAY AND GREATER
THAN 1 INCH VALUES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
MAKE THE TEMPS FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE AND COULD LEAD TO
SOME CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS TIME
THERE IS A 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHC OF MTN CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THIS FCST COULD CHANGE GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE.
AVIATION
16/0611Z.
AT 0518Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 800 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2600 FT WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 30 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD AND KWJF.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF THE TAFS WITH A 25 PERCENT OF NO
RESTRICTIONS AT KSMX AND A 25 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CIGS/VIS AT THE
REAMINING SITES 12Z-16Z.
KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHC OF
BKN004 CONDS 12Z-16Z. ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 6 KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
16/134 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE
OF GALES LATER INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
TO NEAR 10 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS
WILL EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND NEARSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
NORTHWEST SWELL LOWERS. HOWEVER, SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SEAS FROM A
SOUTHERLY SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPCIAL ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA WILL IMPACT OUR WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
16/135 AM.
THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLIER THIS
MORNING AS THE SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS DECREASED, AND THE HIGH TIDES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS.
BEGINNING SUNDAY, STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA COULD PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHERLY SWELL
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL AND POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS
BEACH CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING LATE NEXT WEEK.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 38-88-349>353-356>358-368>375-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES
87-341>345-347-348-354-355-362-366-367-376-377-549-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 349>353-376>378. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...LEWIS/LUND
BEACHES...LEWIS/LUND
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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