721
FXUS66 KLOX 161614
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
914 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
16/859 AM.
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL RETURN TO MANY COASTAL AREAS BY FRIDAY AND EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
16/913 AM.
***UPDATE***
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START TRENDING COOLER TODAY AS
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG THE PAC NW, THOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE 6-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MOST COAST AND VALLEY AREAS TODAY WILL BE
2-5 DEGREES COOLER WHILE DESERT AND OTHER FAR INLAND AREAS REMAIN
ABOUT THE SAME AS WEDNESDAY. A MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY WITH MOST AREAS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
2 MB ONSHORE TRENDS BOTH TO THE N AND E ALONG WITH A WEAK EDDY ON
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TO MUCH OF COASTAL
AREAS. THE MARINE LAYER AS WELL AS THE ONSHORE TRENDS WILL BRING A
SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN MAX TEMPS OF 4 TO 8 LOCALLY 10 DEGREES. THIS
COOLING WILL BRING MAX TEMPS TO WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF NORMAL.
ANOTHER 1 OR 2 MB INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL
BRING THE AFTERNOON GRADIENTS UP INTO MDT TO STG LEVELS. NOT ONLY
WILL THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS COVER THE CSTS THEY WILL XTND LOCALLY
INTO THE VLYS. CLEARING WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN USUAL AS
WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH FROM FRIDAY'S VALUES.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
16/253 AM.
NOT TOO MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE XTND FCST. THE LARGE AND VERY WARM
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CAMPED OUT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY. HGTS WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WILL BE NEAR 592 DAM.
MOST OF THE ACTUAL WEATHER WILL BE CONTROLLED BY THE SFC
GRADIENTS. LOOK FOR STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND THEN GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF BOTH THE E/W AND N/S GRADIENTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE CSTS EACH DAY.
THE HGTS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MARINE LAYER SMOOSHED
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STRATUS OUT (OR MOSTLY OUT) OF THE LOWER VLYS.
MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM SATURDAY'S SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL READING THROUGH MONDAY. 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF WARMING IS ON TAP
FOR TUE AND WED AS THE OFFSHORE TRENDS CONTINUE.
THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PWATS SUNDAY AND GREATER
THAN 1 INCH VALUES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
MAKE THE TEMPS FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE AND COULD LEAD TO
SOME CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS TIME
THERE IS A 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHC OF MTN CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THIS FCST COULD CHANGE GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE.
AVIATION
16/1126Z.
AT 0833Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 800 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2600 FT WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 30 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD AND KWJF.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KLGB, KLAX, KSMO AND KSMX WITH A 35
PERCENT CHC OF OVC008 CONDS 13Z-16Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF THE TAFS WITH A 25 PERCENT CHC OF
LIFR CIGS/VIS AT THE REMAINING SITES 12Z-16Z.
KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHC OF
BKN004 CONDS 12Z-16Z. ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 6 KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
16/738 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL LINGER LOCALLY INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE COASTAL JET ACROSS PZZ670 IS EXPECTED TO RAMP
UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH HAS WARRANTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A GALE WARNING FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. LOCAL GUSTS TO 35
KT MAY STILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. SHORT-PERIOD SEAS (NEARING 10 FT
THIS EVENING) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
THE ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL & ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
BEACHES
16/135 AM.
THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLIER THIS
MORNING AS THE SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS DECREASED, AND THE HIGH TIDES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS.
BEGINNING SUNDAY, STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA COULD PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHERLY SWELL
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL AND POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS
BEACH CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING LATE NEXT WEEK.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 38-88-349>353-356>358-368>375-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES
87-341>345-347-348-354-355-362-366-367-376-377-549-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
PDT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...BLACK
BEACHES...LEWIS/LUND
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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