051
FXUS66 KLOX 161830
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1130 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
UPDATED BEACHES SECTION
SYNOPSIS
16/859 AM.
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL RETURN TO MANY COASTAL AREAS BY FRIDAY AND EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
16/913 AM.
***UPDATE***
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START TRENDING COOLER TODAY AS
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG THE PAC NW, THOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE 6-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MOST COAST AND VALLEY AREAS TODAY WILL BE
2-5 DEGREES COOLER WHILE DESERT AND OTHER FAR INLAND AREAS REMAIN
ABOUT THE SAME AS WEDNESDAY. A MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY WITH MOST AREAS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
2 MB ONSHORE TRENDS BOTH TO THE N AND E ALONG WITH A WEAK EDDY ON
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TO MUCH OF COASTAL
AREAS. THE MARINE LAYER AS WELL AS THE ONSHORE TRENDS WILL BRING A
SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN MAX TEMPS OF 4 TO 8 LOCALLY 10 DEGREES. THIS
COOLING WILL BRING MAX TEMPS TO WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF NORMAL.
ANOTHER 1 OR 2 MB INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL
BRING THE AFTERNOON GRADIENTS UP INTO MDT TO STG LEVELS. NOT ONLY
WILL THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS COVER THE CSTS THEY WILL XTND LOCALLY
INTO THE VLYS. CLEARING WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN USUAL AS
WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH FROM FRIDAY'S VALUES.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
16/253 AM.
NOT TOO MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE XTND FCST. THE LARGE AND VERY WARM
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CAMPED OUT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY. HGTS WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WILL BE NEAR 592 DAM.
MOST OF THE ACTUAL WEATHER WILL BE CONTROLLED BY THE SFC
GRADIENTS. LOOK FOR STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND THEN GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF BOTH THE E/W AND N/S GRADIENTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE CSTS EACH DAY.
THE HGTS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MARINE LAYER SMOOSHED
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STRATUS OUT (OR MOSTLY OUT) OF THE LOWER VLYS.
MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM SATURDAY'S SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL READING THROUGH MONDAY. 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF WARMING IS ON TAP
FOR TUE AND WED AS THE OFFSHORE TRENDS CONTINUE.
THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PWATS SUNDAY AND GREATER
THAN 1 INCH VALUES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
MAKE THE TEMPS FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE AND COULD LEAD TO
SOME CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS TIME
THERE IS A 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHC OF MTN CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THIS FCST COULD CHANGE GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE.
AVIATION
16/1743Z.
AT 1617Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1300 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2800 FT WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 26 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD & KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING 18Z TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT MINIMUMS BY ONE
CATEGORY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL AND CLEARING TIMES
OF CIGS NEAR 009 (+/- 300 FT) SHOULD BE ACCURATE WITHIN +/- 2
HOURS OF CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE EAST WIND
COMPONENT REACHES 7-8 KNOTS FROM 17/08Z-17Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
16/738 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL LINGER LOCALLY INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE COASTAL JET ACROSS PZZ670 IS EXPECTED TO RAMP
UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH HAS WARRANTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A GALE WARNING FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. LOCAL GUSTS TO 35
KT MAY STILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. SHORT-PERIOD SEAS (NEARING 10 FT
THIS EVENING) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
THE ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL & ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
BEACHES
16/1129 AM.
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE
STATUS AND MOVE TO THE NORTH AND WEST. ANOTHER TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND GENERALLY FOLLOW THE
WAKE OF ELIDA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS WELL OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THESE SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATING NORTHWARD AND WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING OUR SOUTH-FACING BEACHES BY SUNDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER PEAK COULD OCCUR LATE
NEXT WEEK DUE TO STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
ADDING TO THE MIX - POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS
BEACH CONDITIONS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 38-88-349>353-356>358-368>375-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES
87-341>345-347-348-354-355-362-366-367-376-377-549-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
PDT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
BEACHES...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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