517
FXUS66 KLOX 170348
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
848 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
16/859 AM.
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL RETURN TO MANY COASTAL AREAS BY FRIDAY AND EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)
16/846 PM.
***UPDATE***
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK, WITH A COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND AN INCREASE IN COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD HOVER NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT INCREASED OVERALL
CLOUDS FROM THIS MOISTURE COULD YIELD COOLER VALUES IN PLACES THAT
SEE MORE DAYTIME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE DOOR IS ALSO STILL
OPEN FOR CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY, FOCUSED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES 7-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HOWEVER, ONSHORE TRENDS BEGAN TODAY AND THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN
ABLE MOVE IN EARLIER AND STRONGER RESULTING IN 2-5 DEGREES OF
COOLING AREA-WIDE TODAY.
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING, ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES, EXPECTED FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PAC NW FURTHER INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL IN MOST
AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR AREAS WHERE HIGHS NEAR 100 ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER DAY. AND LIKELY SOME INCREASE IN MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR COASTAL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH THE REMNANTS OF TS ELIDA WILL BE
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST WHICH LIKELY WILL INCREASE HUMIDITIES AS
PW'S INCREASE BACK TO NEAR 1.50". WITH THAT IN MIND THERE IS A
5-10% CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
16/155 PM.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN PRETTY FLAT THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY
THEN MODELS INDICATE A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEK
WITH WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND. THERE IS ROUGHLY A 50-70% CHANCE OF
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100S IN THE WARMER VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY AND
AROUND A 20% CHANCE OF 105. DOWNTOWN HAS AROUND A 30-40% CHANCE
OF REACHING 90 BY NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WHILE THE DESERTS
HAVE A 60%-80% CHANCE OF AT LEAST LOWER 100S.
THERE IS ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM BEHIND ELIDA NEXT WEEK BUT FOR
NOW THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS A MORE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FEWER IMPACTS LOCALLY.
AVIATION
16/2335Z.
AT 2300Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3500 FT WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 27 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, AND KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL VALLEY AND COASTAL TAFS, WHERE MVFR
TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN. THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS TO BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS IN ONSET AND
DISSIPATION TIMING, AND OFF BY ONE CATEGORY IN MINIMUM RESTRICTION.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF MVFR
TO IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN 2 HOURS OF 08Z-17Z ON
FRIDAY. THERE IS A 60% CHANCE FOR THE EAST WIND COMPONENT TO
REACH 8 KNOTS ON FRIDAY 08Z-17Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.
MARINE
16/819 PM.
MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE AFFECTING OUT OUTER WATERS THIS
EVENING, WITH A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER
ZONE (PZZ670) THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL LOWER TO SCA LEVELS AFTER 0300
FRIDAY, AND THE SCA WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF THE OUTER WATERS. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ALTHOUGH MAY APPROACH SCA AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY RISE TO SCA
LEVELS AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY. SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND
8 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS, AND THEY WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCA WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST NORTH OF PT. SAL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RETURNING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO THE
WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PART OF THE CHANNEL THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SCA
CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
WESTERN CHANNEL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH, SCA CONDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR PZZ655 THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STDAFDLOX
BEACHES
16/1242 PM.
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE
STATUS AND MOVE TO THE NORTH AND WEST. ANOTHER TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND GENERALLY FOLLOW THE
WAKE OF ELIDA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS WELL OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THESE SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATING NORTHWARD AND WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING OUR SOUTH-FACING BEACHES BY SUNDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER PEAK COULD OCCUR LATE
NEXT WEEK DUE TO STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
ADDING TO THE MIX - POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS
BEACH CONDITIONS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR ZONE
670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM
PDT SATURDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MW
AVIATION...COHEN
MARINE...CILIBERTI
BEACHES...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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