677
FXUS66 KLOX 182048
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
148 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
18/146 PM.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, AND MOST AREAS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL RETURN TO MANY COASTAL AREAS EACH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
WHILE ONSHORE GRADIENTS WEAKEN.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
18/146 PM.
THE 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR OVER THE REGION
(AROUND 589-592 DAM) THROUGH MONDAY AS A LARGE/WIDE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM PERSISTS OVER THE UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING AREA. MEANWHILE,
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD, WELL OFF THE
COAST TO THE WEST, AND WEAKEN. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM
THE S TODAY TO MORE SE ON SUNDAY WITH ELIDA'S MOVEMENTS AND SLIGHT
SHIFTS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING, SOME OF THE MOISTURE
FROM ELIDA COULD REACH THE CENTRAL COAST, WITH THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, SLIGHT SHIFTS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NE, WILL HELP BRING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INFLUX
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS A 5-10
PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOCUSED OVER VENTURA
AND L.A. COUNTY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS, MAINLY ON MONDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN SIMILAR MARINE LAYER COVERAGE EACH NIGHT. THE LITTLE
CHANGE IN MARINE LAYER CLOUDS, PRESSURE GRADIENTS, AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS WILL MEAN LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE COAST, MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE
VALLEYS AND LOWER MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS, AND 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR
THE DESERTS. THE ONSET OF A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY,
ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE SUBSEQUENT SECTION.
AS FOR WINDS, GENERALLY SUB-ADVISORY SW WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY/ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. LOCALIZED TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT COULD
RESULT IN A FEW AREAS GUSTING TO 45 MPH (I.E LAKE PALMDALE).
SUNDOWNER WINDS IN SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES COULD BEGIN TO
REACH NEAR ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
18/146 PM.
THE LARGE WESTERN U.S UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT TO THE AREA AROUND NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERN CA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH, WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY INCREASING TO 592-594 DAM DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
AS A RESULT, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MOSTLY BE FROM THE SE, BRINGING
MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 1.25 TO 1.50
INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION AND THROUGH MID-WEEK FOR NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
THESE PWATS ARE ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF
L.A. COUNTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL COME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF AT LEAST VENTURA AND L.A. COUNTIES. HOWEVER,
RIGHT NOW CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 10% FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, AND ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER IDEA OF THE CHANCE AND EXTENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS LIKE VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE TO HIGH HEAT RISK MAY EXPAND INTO WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN AND MAYBE TURN LIGHTLY OFFSHORE IN
THE MORNINGS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING TO
594-596 DAM. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE (AT LEAST 60 PERCENT
CHANCE) THAT AT LEAST HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED IN SOME
AREAS, INCLUDING POTENTIALLY NEAR THE COAST, BY WEDNESDAY. ALSO OF
NOTE, SUNDOWNER WINDS IN SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES COULD
REACH NEAR ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
18/1730Z.
AT 1651Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1600 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 4300 FT WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 23 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDS AT KBUR, KVNY, AND KPRB AFTER 10Z. THERE IS A 20-30%
CHANCE FOR VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT KSBP, KSBA, KOXR, AND KCMA.
OTHERWISE, CIG ARRIVAL TIMES MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS AND CIG HEIGHT
MAY BE OFF +/- 300 FEET.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 06Z
WITH CIG HEIGHTS AS LOW AS OVC008. TRANSITION TO VFR EXPECTED
BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z SUN. ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO
BELOW 8 KT.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 30% CHANCE FOR IFR CONDS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. IF CIGS ARRIVE, 20% CHANCE CONDS DROP DOWN
TO LIFR.
MARINE
18/129 PM.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED SCA LEVEL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS MORE THAN 20 NM FROM
SHORE (EXCEPT FOR NEAR POINT CONCEPTION). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY TO SCA LEVELS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
A SERIES OF MODERATE PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY IMPACT
SOUTH FACING HARBORS, INCLUDING THE PORT SAN LUIS AREA.
BEACHES
18/129 PM.
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WELL OFF THE BAJA AND EVENTUALLY
CALIFORNIA COAST. ANOTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE SAME AREA AND FOLLOW A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK
ALONG 20 N LATITUDE. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE PERIOD
SOUTHERLY SWELLS. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA FROM
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE SECONDARY SYSTEM ON THE HEELS OF ELIDA AND AN INCOMING LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTH SWELL ARRIVING LATER NEXT WEEK
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED AND POTENTIALLY MORE HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES AND/OR BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 11 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...LUND/COHEN
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
BEACHES...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...LEWIS/CILIBERTI/COHEN
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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