750
FXUS66 KLOX 192354
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
454 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
19/131 PM.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. A LONG AND DANGEROUS HEATWAVE IS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
19/131 PM.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK (80 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR A LONG AND DANGEROUS
HEATWAVE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. NOW IS THE TIME TO START PLANNING
AHEAD OF THE HEAT SUCH AS CHANGING OUTDOOR PLANS OR FINDING PLACES
TO STAY COOL AND SOCIALIZE THIS RISK WITH FRIENDS AND FAMILY. AS
WITH MANY HEATWAVES, THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR LARGE
FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST, SO PLEASE ALSO TAKE CARE WITH FIRE
IGNITION SOURCES.
A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND OFFSHORE TRENDS WILL
SUPPORT A CONSISTENT WARMING TREND STARTING IN EARNEST TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD MODERATE
ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT RISK IS LIKELY (80 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR MOST
AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS OF 85-105 MAY BECOME COMMON
AWAY FROM THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE SLIDING WELL
TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. PERIODS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST BUT MAY EXPAND TO OTHER AREAS AT
TIMES. THERE IS A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
FOCUSED ACROSS THIS AREA AND TYPICAL MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY, LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY FOR
LOS ANGELES COUNTY.
OTHERWISE NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG MAY BECOME
MORE PREVALENT WHERE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
LOCALLY ENHANCED NORTHWEST SUNDOWNER WINDS TICKING UP TO NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
19/131 PM.
THE HEAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
CONTINUED WARMING VERY MUCH IN PLACE BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH A 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGH WARNING LEVEL HEAT RISK FOR MANY AREAS. DAYTIME
HIGHS OF 85-105 WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WITH A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 90-110.
THE BUILDING RIDGE MAY BE POSITIONED FAVORABLY TO KEEP THE MONSOON
DOOR OPEN WITH A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOCUSED ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS, ESPECIALLY LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES. THE ADDED HUMIDITY WILL ADD TO THE HEAT RISK AND ASSIST
IN MAINTAINING VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
AT LEAST INTERIOR VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCALES.
SUNDOWNER WINDS MAY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY EVENING. AS THEY WEAKEN AN ASSOCIATED CATALINA EDDY MAY
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES AND
ASSOCIATED BOOST IN HUMIDITIES WILL LIMIT THE RELIEF.
AVIATION
19/2353Z.
AT 2350Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1400 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3200 FT WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 25 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD, KWJF, AND KPRB.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KBUR AND KVNY. THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE FOR LIFR TO IFR CONDS 10Z-16Z.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING COASTAL TAFS. HIGH
CLOUDS MAY DISRUPT MARINE LAYER FORMATION TONIGHT, BUT GENERALLY
EXPECTED SIMILAR MARINE LAYER COVERAGE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS AND MIN CIG HEIGHT MAY BE +/- 300
FEET FROM TAF. 30% CHANCE FOR VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX OVERNIGHT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS MAY ARRIVE AS SOON AS 03Z.
CIGS MAY REMAIN AT OVC010 OR ABOVE WHEN PRESENT. NO SIGNIFICANT
EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 20% CHANCE FOR LIFR-IFR CONDS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z MON. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
19/104 PM.
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT FOR MARGINAL SCA
LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS MORE THAN 20 NM
FROM SHORE AND NEAR POINT CONCEPTION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY, RISING TO SCA LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES ALSO
INCREASE FOR SCA LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL DURING THE SAME TIME.
A SERIES OF MODERATE PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND. THESE SWELLS MAY
IMPACT SOUTH FACING HARBORS, INCLUDING THE PORT SAN LUIS AREA.
BEACHES
19/104 PM.
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. ANOTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
SAME AREA AND FOLLOW A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK ALONG 20 N
LATITUDE. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELLS. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND ARE IN EFFECT THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE SECONDARY SYSTEM ON THE HEELS OF ELIDA AS WELL AS AN INCOMING
LONG PERIOD, SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE, SOUTH SWELL ARRIVING LATER THIS
WEEK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED AND POTENTIALLY MORE HAZARDOUS
BEACH CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL HIGH SURF ADVISORIES
AND/OR BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS ARE LIKELY NEEDED NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, A SERIES OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST, LIKELY PRODUCING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SOUTHERLY SWELLS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MUNROE
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...LEWIS
BEACHES...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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