609
FXUS66 KLOX 200609
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1109 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
19/723 PM.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A LONG AND DANGEROUS HEATWAVE IS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)
19/800 PM.
***UPDATE***
A SEASONALLY WARM DAY TODAY BEGAN WITH LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST,
BURNING OFF IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. HIGHS RANGED FROM THE MID 80S TO
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL
LOCATIONS RANGED FROM 60S ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO 70S TO NEAR
80S FARTHER SOUTH.
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND ARE EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW SUIT OVER THE REMAINING COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE
EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT,
MOVING OVER THE COASTAL BASINS, INTO THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
GABRIEL VALLEYS, BUT NONE OF THE OTHER VALLEYS SHOULD BE
AFFECTED.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE, OR WARM A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME AREAS.
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS WILL AGAIN AFFECT THE INTERIOR PASSES AND
CANYONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THERE IS A HIGH RISK (80 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR A LONG AND DANGEROUS
HEATWAVE BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT WEEKEND. NOW IS THE TIME TO START PLANNING AHEAD OF THE HEAT
SUCH AS CHANGING OUTDOOR PLANS OR FINDING PLACES TO STAY COOL AND
SOCIALIZE THIS RISK WITH FRIENDS AND FAMILY. AS WITH MANY
HEATWAVES, THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR LARGE FIRES
AWAY FROM THE COAST. PLEASE TAKE CARE WITH FIRE IGNITION SOURCES.
A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND OFFSHORE TRENDS WILL
SUPPORT A CONSISTENT WARMING TREND STARTING IN EARNEST TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD MODERATE
ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT IS LIKELY (80 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR MOST AREAS
BY WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS OF 85-105 MAY BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE SLIDING WELL
TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. PERIODS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST BUT MAY EXPAND TO OTHER AREAS AT
TIMES. THERE IS A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
FOCUSED ACROSS THIS AREA AND TYPICAL MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY, LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY FOR
LOS ANGELES COUNTY.
OTHERWISE NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG MAY BECOME
MORE PREVALENT WHERE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
LOCALLY ENHANCED NORTHWEST SUNDOWNER WINDS TICKING UP TO NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
19/131 PM.
THE HEAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
CONTINUED WARMING VERY MUCH IN PLACE BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH A 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGH WARNING LEVEL HEAT RISK FOR MANY AREAS. DAYTIME
HIGHS OF 85-105 WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WITH A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 90-110.
THE BUILDING RIDGE MAY BE POSITIONED FAVORABLY TO KEEP THE MONSOON
DOOR OPEN WITH A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOCUSED ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS, ESPECIALLY LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES. THE ADDED HUMIDITY WILL ADD TO THE HEAT RISK AND ASSIST
IN MAINTAINING VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
AT LEAST INTERIOR VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCALES.
SUNDOWNER WINDS MAY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY EVENING. AS THEY WEAKEN AN ASSOCIATED CATALINA EDDY MAY
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES AND
ASSOCIATED BOOST IN HUMIDITIES WILL LIMIT THE RELIEF.
AVIATION
20/0609Z.
AT 0520Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1000 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3000 FT WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 26 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD, KWJF, AND KPRB.
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KBUR AND KVNY WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR
LIFR/IFR CONDS 12Z-16Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KSBA AND KCMA WITH A 30 PERCENT
CHC OF IFR CONDS 12Z-16Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF FOR KOXR WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF NO
LOW CLOUDS.
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KLAX, KSMO, KLGB, KSMX AND KSBP WHERE
TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS AND CIG HGTS +/- 200 FT.
KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF OVC010
CIGS AT 12Z. VFR CONDS MAY ARRIVE AS LATE AS 17Z. NO SIGNIFICANT
EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC OF OVC005
CONDS 12Z-16Z.
MARINE
19/922 PM.
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TUESDAY, RISING TO SCA LEVELS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES ALSO
INCREASE FOR SCA LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL DURING THE SAME TIME.
A SERIES OF MODERATE PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND. THESE SWELLS MAY
IMPACT SOUTH FACING HARBORS, INCLUDING THE PORT SAN LUIS AREA.
BEACHES
19/724 PM.
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. ANOTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
SAME AREA AND FOLLOW A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK ALONG 20 N
LATITUDE. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELLS. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND ARE IN EFFECT THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE SECONDARY SYSTEM ON THE HEELS OF ELIDA AS WELL AS AN INCOMING
LONG PERIOD, SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL ARRIVING LATER THIS WEEK
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED AND POTENTIALLY MORE HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES AND/OR BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEK.
LOOKING BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, A SERIES OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST, LIKELY PRODUCING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SOUTHERLY SWELLS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MUNROE/CILIBERTI
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...LEWIS/CILIBERTI
BEACHES...LEWIS/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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