802
FXUS66 KLOX 030620
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1120 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
02/711 PM.
EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING WEEK, BUT WITH CONTINUED HOT
CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR AS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE. DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT SOME COASTAL AREAS.
SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)
02/752 PM.
***UPDATE***
ANOTHER HOT DAY IN THE BOOK, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. THESE
AREAS SAW HIGHS IN THE 90S TO 105, WITH HIGHS UP TO 108 IN THE
DESERTS AND A SOME OF THE HOTTEST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THE COASTAL
AREAS WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY THANKS TO A STRONGER SEA BREEZE,
WITH 60S-70S ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, AND 70S-80S FOR COASTAL
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH, AND SOME OF THE COASTAL VALLEYS. THIS
TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, WITH THE
SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENING, THE COASTS AND COASTAL VALLEYS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, INTERIOR AREAS WILL
REMAIN VERY WARM TO HOT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT INLAND WILL CONTINUE LATER INTO THE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND. THIS EVENING WILL EXTEND THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE VENTURA MOUNTAINS AND CUYAMA VALLEY, TO
MATCH UP WITH THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. AS THE WARNINGS EXPIRE FOR
OTHER INTERIOR AREAS WILL ISSUE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR INTERIOR SAN
LUIS OBISPO COUNTY, THE REMAINING INTERIOR MOUNTAINS, AND THE
SANTA SUSANAS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEAT HAZARDS FOR THE COAST OR
COASTAL VALLEYS THROUGH MID WEEK AS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ONSHORE
FLOW TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE MODERATE (ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL BY 1-5 DEGREES).
AS FOR WINDS, GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE AREA,
RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH, BUT WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH OVER THE
INTERIOR PASSES AND CANYONS INTO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA, THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. FURTHER SOUTH, LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE COASTAL
BASINS BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
GOING FORWARD, THERE WILL BE A VERY MODEST COOL DOWN FOR COAST AND
COASTAL VALLEYS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, BUT INTERIOR AREAS NOT SO
MUCH, AND ESPECIALLY THE DESERTS. LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
THERE SUGGESTS MINIMAL COOL DOWN, IF ANY, THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AND POSSIBLY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS 950MB TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE 38-40C RANGE, WHICH TYPICALLY MEANS CLOSING IN ON 110 ACROSS
THE DESERTS AND 100+ IN THE OTHER FAR INLAND LOCATIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DESERT EXTREME
HEAT WARMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MATCHING OUR NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
02/1254 PM.
AFTER TUESDAY TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF AND
POSSIBLY INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER AZ NUDGES
WEST AGAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE SOME
SIGNALS IN THE ENSEMBLE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATING SOME LIGHT
OFFSHORE TRENDS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS COMING WEEK THAT COULD
RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS AS
WELL. AND AS MENTIONED, IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WOULD ESTIMATE AT LEAST A 60% CHANCE OF EXTENDED THE DESERT
EXTREME HEAT WARNING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND AROUND A
20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL
VALLEYS. ONE FACTOR THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IS MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE LATER IN THE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND, THAT COULD INTRODUCE ANOTHER HEAT RISK
FACTOR WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND IN TURN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
AVIATION
03/0616Z.
AT 0512Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1000 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3100 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 27 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS FOR KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD AND KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH THE REMAINING TAFS. VFR TRANSITION
TIMING MAY BE OFF BY +/- 90 MINUTES. KSBA AND SOUTH CIGS MAY BE
OFF BY +/- 300 FT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF VLIFR CONDS AT
KSMX AND KSBP THROUGH 15Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDS COULD ARRIVE AS LATE
AS 1730Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.
MARINE
02/847 PM.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF
SCA WINDS DURING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, HIGHEST ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE EARLY
THIS COMING WEEK. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT SCA WINDS WILL
RESUME NEAR AND SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SEAS OF 6-9 FEET WILL IMPACT THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT,
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AND SHORTER-
PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL/WIND- WAVES. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT SOME OF THE COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT AND
MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
02/323 PM.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS, MOUNTAINS,
AND DESERTS DUE TO HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY ONSHORE CONDITIONS WITH AN
INCREASED RISK FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE BEHAVIOR AND RAPID
FIRE GROWTH DUE TO DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS. FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK,
DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS OF 10,000 TO 17,000 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH PEAK HEIGHTS LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK
AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. IF ANY FIRE
IGNITIONS OCCUR ACROSS THE INTERIOR, THESE DEEPER MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, WHERE LIVE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS.
OTHER FACTORS THAT WILL ADD TO THE FIRE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THIS WEEK WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 35 MPH, AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD AND LONG
DURATION SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES. AS A RESULT, EXPECTING AT LEAST
A FEW HOURS OF WIND/RH OVERLAP TO REACH BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MANY INTERIOR AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RED FLAG
DURATIONS BEING REACHED (6+ HOURS) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST RISK AREAS
INCLUDE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS, CUYAMA
VALLEY, SANTA BARBARA COUNTY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS, VENTURA COUNTY
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS, AND I-5 CORRIDOR. HOT-DRY-WINDY INDEX ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS SHOWING SEVERAL MODEL MEMBERS EXCEEDING 95TH PERCENTILE
FOR MULTIPLE DAYS ACROSS INTERIOR SAN LUIS OBISPO, SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS, VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS, AND
I-5 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE VERY POOR TO POOR
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME LOCATIONS MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE TEENS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR ZONES 38-377. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 344-345-353-375-376-378>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/CILIBERTI
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...CILIBERTI
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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