227
FXUS66 KLOX 031727
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1027 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
03/1203 AM.
EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING WEEK, BUT WITH CONTINUED HOT
CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR AS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE. DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT SOME COASTAL AREAS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
03/929 AM.
***UPDATE***
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR COAST AND VALLEYS
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE EXTREME HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
DESERT AND OTHER FAR INTERIOR AREAS POSSIBLY INTO THIS COMING
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 105 AND 110. MEANWHILE AT THE COAST, A
SOLID BUT SHALLOW MARINE LAYER HAS FORMED AND WILL LIKELY BE HERE
ALL WEEK, THOUGH SOME ENSEMBLE GRADIENTS INDICATE A WEAKENING OF
ONSHORE FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME WARMING
AND EARLIER CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE HGTS OF 594 DAM. THE SFC GRADIENTS WILL ALSO NOT CHANGE
MUCH OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE WILL BE MDT TO STG ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE EAST AND WEAK TO MDT ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTH.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE
CSTL AREAS EVERYDAY. THE 594 DAM HGTS WILL SMOOSH THE MARINE LAYER
ENOUGH TO CREATE POCKETS OF DENSE FOG, ESP ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST.
MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN TALKING POINT. THE CSTS AND
VLYS WILL SEE A SMALL COOLING TREND EACH DAY OF 1 TO 2 DEGREES.
MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, BUT NOT DANGEROUSLY SO. THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS AND THE FAR INTERIOR WILL NOT BE
AFFECTED BY THE MARINE LAYER OR ONSHORE FLOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE MAX TEMPS FROM 100 TO 110 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXTREME
HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PLEASE SEE THE PRODUCT LAXNPWLOX FOR DETAILS.
THE STRONG ONSHORE PUSH IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS.
THE GUSTS WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY LEVELS BUT WILL COME CLOSE IN
THE ANTELOPE VLY WHERE GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
03/232 AM.
THE 500MB PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THURSDAY AND THE DAY DOES
LOOK SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. THE MDLS SHOW JUST A SMIDGEN OF
COOLING AND DEPENDING ON HOW THE INTERIOR TEMPS GO TUE AND WED
THERE MIGHT NOT BE A NEED FOR HEAT PRODUCTS.
THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AND HGTS OVER SRN CA RISE TO
597 DAM. AT THE SAME TIME MOISTURE INCREASES WITH PWS OVER KLAX
INCREASING TO 1.42" BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE EC
ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW A DECREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. RIGHT NOW MDL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW TOO MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN TEMPS, WHICH
MAY WELL BE THE RESULT OF MOISTER AIR NOT WARMING AS QUICKLY. THE
MORE HUMID AIR WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH OVERNIGHT COOLING. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED HUMIDITY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS.
MDLS DO SHOW THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENING ON SUN/MON ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD BRING TWO DAYS OF COOLING.
HUMIDITIES, HOWEVER, ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION
03/1724Z.
AT 1626Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1600 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4100 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 27 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS FOR KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD AND KWJF.
THERE IS A 15% CHANCE FOR BRIEF LIFR CONDS AT KPRB/KBUR/KVNY
BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH THE REMAINING TAFS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE
KOXR DOES NOT CLEAR TODAY AND REMAINS IFR TO MVFR. OTHERWISE, VFR
TRANSTION MAY BE OFF +/- 1 HOUR. ARRIVAL OF CIGS TONIGHT MAY BE
OFF +/- 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS AT KSBA,
KOXR, KCMA TONIGHT, AND A 50% CHANCE FOR VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX/KSBP
FROM 07Z-15Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS MAY ARRIVE BETWEEN 01Z AND
06Z, WITH A 20% CHANCE CIGS REMAIN AOB 010 WHEN CIGS ARE PRESENT.
NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HOWEVER THERE IS A 15% CHANCE FOR
BRIEF LIFR CONDS AT KPRB/KBUR/KVNY BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z.
MARINE
03/859 AM.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY AND
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST WINDS LOCALLY GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS IN TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTHER AND WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 38-377. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
344-345-353-375-376-378>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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