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FXUS66 KLOX 031924
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1224 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
03/1144 AM.
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, WHILE FAR INTERIOR AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BAKE UNDER TRIPLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK. ALONG THE COAST LOW CLOUDS AND
LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP AND COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
IN SOME AREAS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
03/1205 PM.
THE SEMI-PERMANENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER AZ AND MOST OF THE
SOUTHWEST WILL STICK AROUND ALL WEEK, MAINTAINING VERY SIMILAR DAY
TO DAY WEATHER. THIS INCLUDES A 1200-1700 FT MARINE LAYER THAT
COULD CREATE SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG NEAR THE COAST AS WELL AS
EXTREME HEAT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 100 AND 110 AS WELL AS SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DOWNTOWN AND VALLEY AREAS. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS
INDICATE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
ACTUALLY SOME ADDITIONAL 1-3 DEGREES OF WARMING LATER IN THE
WEEK.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
03/1223 PM.
INTERIOR HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
AND THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE THAT THE CURRENT SUITE OF HEAT
HAZARDS WILL BE EXTENDED, POSSIBLY INTO THIS COMING WEEKEND AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. VALLEYS AND EVEN
SOME COASTAL AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING LATE WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE THAT HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR THE VALLEYS.
MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE STARTING
AROUND FRIDAY AND PEAKING OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD ADD TO THE
HEAT RISK FACTORS AND MAKE IT FEEL MORE STICKY AND UNCOMFORTABLE.
THOUGH AT THIS POINT CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ARE 5% OR LESS.
BEYOND THAT A MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW WEAKENING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS.
AVIATION
03/1724Z.
AT 1626Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1600 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4100 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 27 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS FOR KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD AND KWJF.
THERE IS A 15% CHANCE FOR BRIEF LIFR CONDS AT KPRB/KBUR/KVNY
BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH THE REMAINING TAFS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE
KOXR DOES NOT CLEAR TODAY AND REMAINS IFR TO MVFR. OTHERWISE, VFR
TRANSTION MAY BE OFF +/- 1 HOUR. ARRIVAL OF CIGS TONIGHT MAY BE
OFF +/- 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS AT KSBA,
KOXR, KCMA TONIGHT, AND A 50% CHANCE FOR VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX/KSBP
FROM 07Z-15Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS MAY ARRIVE BETWEEN 01Z AND
06Z, WITH A 20% CHANCE CIGS REMAIN AOB 010 WHEN CIGS ARE PRESENT.
NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HOWEVER THERE IS A 15% CHANCE FOR
BRIEF LIFR CONDS AT KPRB/KBUR/KVNY BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z.
MARINE
03/859 AM.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY AND
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST WINDS LOCALLY GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS IN TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTHER AND WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 38-377. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
344-345-353-375-376-378>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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