851
FXUS66 KLOX 050349
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
849 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
04/1006 AM.
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, WHILE FAR INTERIOR AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BAKE UNDER TRIPLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK. ALONG THE COAST LOW CLOUDS AND
LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP AND COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
IN SOME AREAS.
SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)
04/848 PM.
***UPDATE***
PLENTY OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BLANKETED THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
INTO MOST COASTAL VALLEYS THIS MORNING, HELPING LIMIT WARMING NEAR
THE COASTS. THE VALLEYS STILL MANAGED TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S FOR
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. HEAT CONTINUES FOR THE INTERIOR,
WITH 90S TO MID 100S COMMON. EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DAY TO
DAY FORECAST AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAINS TO THE EAST OF STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE WEEK, AND THE RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FEEL MORE UNCOMFORTABLE. IN GENERAL THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK, BUT DID COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A 597 DAM UPPER HIGH WILL SIT OVER AZ THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
594-595 DAM HGTS OVER SRN CA. THERE WILL BE MDT-STG ONSHORE FLOW
TO THE EAST AND WEAK-MDT ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTH. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE NEAR 1000 FT AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL AFFECT THE CSTS EACH DAY. SOME NEARSHORE AREAS WILL
SEE SLOW CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STRONG ONSHORE TO
THE EAST.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE CSTS AND VLYS.
SINCE IT IS AUGUST "CLOSE TO NORMAL" IN THE VLYS STILL MEANS 90 TO
101 DEGREES AND MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE INLAND CSTL SECTIONS. THE
LOWER MTN ELEVATIONS AND FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL NOT FEEL THE
EFFECTS OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO
109 DEGREES OR 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE UPPER HIGH MOVES TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND HGTS BUMP UP TO
596 DAM AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THERE
IS A MONSOON PUSH AND PWS RISE TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES. MAX TEMPS
WILL ONLY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO, BUT THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE THE HEAT RISK AS WELL AS KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. THE COMBINATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS
AS WELL AS INCREASED HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE
TO HIGH HEAT DANGER TO INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WHERE HEAT
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY. AS
THE WEEKEND APPROACHES A SUITE OF HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
(40-60 PERCENT CHANCE) BE ISSUED FOR MANY VLY AREAS. AS LONG AS
THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE COASTAL AREAS MAY MOSTLY BE HEAT
ADVISORY/WARNING FREE. ONE WRINKLE IS THAT MONSOON MOISTURE CAN
DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER, SO THERE IS A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES 4-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECAST ON ANY GIVEN DAY FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
OTHERWISE, ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND THIS WILL KEEP THE
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
VERY HIGH HGTS WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER UNDER A 1000 FT WITH
PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. THE VLYS WILL REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR.
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO RISK FOR MONSOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ONLY A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF
EASTERN LA COUNTY THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
HOT, DRY AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
HIGH FIRE DANGER INLAND AND ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE
WEEK. PLEASE TAKE CARE WITH OR AVOID FIRE IGNITION SOURCES SUCH AS
POSSIBLE DRAGGING CHAINS BEYOND VEHICLES, LAWN CARE EQUIPMENT,
AND CAMPFIRES.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
04/1008 AM.
STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL
WEAKEN AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO ALMOST 10 MB ONSHORE
TO THE EAST. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO COOL 1-2 DEGREES SUNDAY AND
2 TO 4 MORE DEGREES ON MONDAY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON WITH A
5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FOCUSED
ACROSS INTERIOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
AVIATION
05/0348Z.
AT 01Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1800 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3900 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 25 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS FOR KPMD AND KWJF. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY
REACH KPRB. FOR SITES WITH CIGS FORECASTED, TIMING MAY BE OFF BY
2 HOURS AND OFF BY 1 CATEGORY AT TIMES. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR
BRIEF CIGS AT KPRB/KBUR/KVNY BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z WED, AND LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY 2 HOURS, GREATEST THIS EVENING. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT
EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR
BKN005-BKN010 CIGS FROM 12Z-16Z.
MARINE
04/846 PM.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST
WINDS LOCALLY GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS IN TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS
AROUND AND TO THE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH AND WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 38-377-381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES
344-345-353-375-376-378>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MUNROE
AVIATION...PHILLIPS/SCHOENFELD
MARINE...KL/RS
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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