476
FXUS66 KLOX 060604
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1104 PM PDT WED AUG 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
05/219 PM.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE COMMON OVER
COASTAL AREAS AND THE COASTAL VALLEYS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER INTERIOR AREAS. ASIDE FROM A COUPLE
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)
05/847 PM.
***UPDATE***
LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY, WITH MINIMAL CHANGES
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAT CONTINUES FOR THE INTERIOR,
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS, WITH COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG REOCCURRING
EACH NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TREND A LITTLE WEAKER EACH
DAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW THE COASTS AND COASTAL PLAINS TO TREND A
BIT WARMER. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY GRADUALLY RISING
HEIGHTS, WHICH SHOULD COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER AND LIMIT CLOUDS
CLOSER TO THE COASTS. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED,
BUT THE CENTRAL COAST WAS COOLED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN
ONGOING ONSHORE FLOW AND COASTAL CLOUDS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
NOT MUCH SYNOPTIC CHANGE AT ALL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AS A 595
DAM UPPER HIGH SITS OVER AZ WITH 594-595 DAM HGTS OVER SRN CA.
THERE WILL BE MDT-STG ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND WEAK-MDT
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTH.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE NEAR 1400 FT AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AFFECT NOT ONLY THE CSTS BUT ALSO SOME OF
THE LOWER COASTAL VLYS EACH DAY. CLEARING WILL BE SLOW IN
NEARSHORE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.
THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BY
FRIDAY MOST MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WARMING TREND FOR THE COASTS AND THE ONSHORE
FLOW AND MARINE LAYER COULD EASILY DEFEAT ANY OTHER WARMING
EFFECTS. WHILE ALL AREAS WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ONLY THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HEAT WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES, WHICH RUN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ONE MORE THING WILL BE THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE MOVE IN UNDER THE UPPER HIGH AND INTO SRN CA. THE
INCREASED HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE THE DAYTIME HIGHS FEEL WORSE AND
WILL HINDER THE OVERNIGHT COOLING. IT WILL PRODUCE A NON ZERO CHC
OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS -- HIGHEST ON SUNDAY.
THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE STRONGER
THAN NORMAL SEA BREEZES AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE INTERIOR.
THE GUSTY WINDS IN THE INTERIOR IN COMBINATION WITH THE HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
05/218 PM.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO
SUNDAY.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES (AROUND 15%) FOR SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES INTO NEARBY DESERTS ON SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY, CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A COOLING
TREND AND AN ELIMINATION OF THE NEED FOR HEAT PRODUCTS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
06/0603Z.
AT 0450Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1100 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 28 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD & KWJF.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KBUR & KVNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC OF
IFR CIGS 12Z-16Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS, AND CIG HEIGHTS BY +/- 200
FT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC THAT
CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 010. VFR CONDS COULD ARRIVE ANY TIME BETWEEN
17Z AND 19Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS ONLY A 15% CHANCE OF
BKN-OVC006-010 CONDS 12Z-16Z.
MARINE
05/713 PM.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) CRITERIA INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST
WINDS LOCALLY GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS IN TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS
AROUND AND TO THE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING INTO THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS
NORTH AND WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 38-377-381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
344-345-353-375-376-378>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...KL/RS/DB/COHEN
SYNOPSIS...COHEN
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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