735
FXUS66 KLOX 060944
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
244 AM PDT THU AUG 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
06/243 AM.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE COMMON OVER
COASTAL AREAS AND THE COASTAL VALLEYS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER INTERIOR AREAS. ASIDE FROM THE
POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
06/243 AM.
THE NEXT 4 DAYS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND WILL BE
DEFINED BY DANGEROUS HEAT/HUMIDITY ACROSS THE VLYS AREAS FURTHER
INLAND.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SYNOPTIC CHANGE AT ALL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. A 599 DAM UPPER HIGH WILL SIT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND NOT MOVE MUCH. HGTS WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM 594 DAM TODAY
TO 596 DAM FRIDAY. THE HGTS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH SATURDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY SUBSIDE BACK TO 594 DAM SUNDAY. AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE
MDT-STG ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND WEAK-MDT ONSHORE FLOW TO THE
NORTH.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE NEAR 1400 FT AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AFFECT NOT ONLY THE CSTS BUT ALSO SOME OF
THE LOWER COASTAL VLYS EACH DAY. CLEARING WILL BE SLOWER THAN
NORMAL BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY NOON EACH DAY. THE ONLY
FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE INCREASING AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE
WHICH COULD DISRUPT OR SLOW THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS FORMATION.
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH THERE WILL BE SE FLOW AT THE
UPPER LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL USHER IN
SOME MONSOON MOISTURE. PWS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY STARTING OUT
AROUND AN INCH OVER KLAX TODAY AND ENDING UP NEAR 1.6 INCHES ON
SUNDAY. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL DRIVE UP HUMIDITIES. THERE
WILL BE A NON ZERO CHC OF MTN CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON
STARTING TODAY BUT THE ACTUAL CHC OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN AT 10
PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AT THE PEAK OF THE
MONSOON THE CHC WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 PERCENT.
THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HGTS
RISE AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE
OR TWO TODAY, BUT ON FRIDAY AREAS SHOULD SEE A 3 TO 5 DEGREE WARM
UP. SATURDAY WILL FOLLOW WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 DEGREES OF
WARMING FOR MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
MOSTLY BE 4 TO 8 LOCALLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WARMING TREND FOR THE NEARSHORE AREA AS THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER COULD EASILY DEFEAT ANY OTHER
WARMING EFFECTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE TEMPERATURE THE AREA WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY EACH DAY. THIS WILL MAKE THE ACTUAL TEMPS FEEL WORSE THAN
NORMAL. AT NIGHT THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL INHIBIT COOLING
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL AND STICKY OVERNIGHT LOWS. HEAT
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MTN ELEVATIONS
AND THE FAR INTERIOR. EVEN THROUGH THE COASTAL VLYS ARE NOT IN ANY
OF THESE ADVISORIES RESIDENTS WILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF THE
AFTERNOON HEAT AND TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS.
THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE STRONGER
THAN NORMAL SEA BREEZES AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE INTERIOR.
THE GUSTY WINDS IN THE INTERIOR IN COMBINATION WITH THE HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
06/225 AM.
COOLING WILL FINALLY ARRIVE ON MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A SERIES OF WEAK TROFS MOVES
THROUGH OR AND FAR NRN CA. HGTS WILL FALL TO 592 DAM. AT THE SAME
TIME ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BOTH TO THE NORTH AND THE EAST
BECOMING STRONGLY ONSHORE IN BOTH DIRECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL RESPOND TO THIS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO XTND INTO THE VLYS. LOOK FOR SLOWER THAN NORMAL CLEARING
AND SOME WEST FACING BEACHES MAY SEE ONLY LIMITED CLEARING.
THE COMBINATION OF A DEEPER MARINE LAYER, STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW
AND FALLING HGTS WILL BRING 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF COOLING EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH NORMALS ON
TUESDAY AND THEN MOST AREAS WILL SEE BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS ON WED
AND THU. VLY TEMPS ON WED AND THU WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
PWS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER. THIS WILL
MAKE THINGS FEEL A LITTLE STICKIER THAN NORMAL AND WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE LOW CHC (10 TO 15 PERCENT) OF AFTERNOON MTN CONVECTION
GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
06/0944Z.
AT 0820Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1100 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 28 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD & KWJF.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KBUR & KVNY WITH A 15 PERCENT CHC OF
IFR CIGS 13Z-16Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS, AND CIG HEIGHTS BY +/- 200
FT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC THAT
CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 010. VFR CONDS COULD ARRIVE ANY TIME BETWEEN
17Z AND 19Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS ONLY A 15% CHANCE OF
BKN-OVC006-010 CONDS 13Z-16Z.
MARINE
06/243 AM.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) CRITERIA INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST
WINDS LOCALLY GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS IN TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS
AROUND AND TO THE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING INTO THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS
NORTH AND WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 38-377-381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
344-345-353-375-376-378>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...KL/RS/DB/COHEN
SYNOPSIS...COHEN
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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