187
FXUS66 KLOX 061647
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
947 AM PDT THU AUG 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
06/907 AM.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE COMMON OVER
COASTAL AREAS AND THE COASTAL VALLEYS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER INTERIOR AREAS. ASIDE FROM THE CHANCE
OF A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
06/945 AM.
***UPDATE***
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS RIDGE
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN EXPAND WESTWARD SO
THAT HEIGHTS RISE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATURDAY IS LIKELY TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THIS STRETCH OF HEAT AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE
TO 596 DAM. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL HOT, FOLLOWED
BY MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
THROUGH THE INTERIOR PASSES AND CANYONS INTO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
IN GENERAL, ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH (LAX TO
DAGGETT AND LAX TO BAKERSFIELD) WILL WEAKEN SOME FRIDAY, THEN
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT, RESULTING IN A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS AND EASTERN
ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT COASTAL AREAS AND SOME
OF THE COASTAL VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHT TO MORNING HOURS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. THIS PATTERN COULD BE DISRUPTED DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALOFT, WHICH COULD SLOW OR PREVENT
MARINE LAYER FORMATION.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH THERE WILL BE SE FLOW AT THE
UPPER LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL USHER IN
SOME MONSOON MOISTURE. PWS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY STARTING OUT
AROUND AN INCH OVER KLAX TODAY AND ENDING UP NEAR 1.6 INCHES ON
SUNDAY. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL DRIVE UP HUMIDITIES. THERE
WILL BE A NON ZERO CHC OF MTN CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON
STARTING TODAY BUT THE ACTUAL CHC OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN AT
10-15 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AT THE PEAK OF
THE MONSOON THE CHC WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10-20 PERCENT.
THERE WILL BE SLOW WARMING THROUGH SATURDAY AS HGTS RISE ALOFT.
THERE WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY, BUT ON FRIDAY AREAS
SHOULD SEE A 3 TO 5 DEGREE WARM UP. SATURDAY WILL FOLLOW WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 DEGREES OF WARMING FOR MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL MOSTLY BE 4 TO 8 LOCALLY 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WARMING TREND FOR
THE NEARSHORE AREA AS THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER COULD
EASILY DEFEAT ANY OTHER WARMING EFFECTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE TEMPERATURE THE AREA WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY EACH DAY. THIS WILL MAKE THE ACTUAL TEMPS FEEL WORSE THAN
NORMAL. AT NIGHT THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL INHIBIT COOLING
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL AND STICKY OVERNIGHT LOWS. HEAT
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MTN ELEVATIONS
AND THE FAR INTERIOR. EVEN THROUGH THE COASTAL VLYS ARE NOT IN ANY
OF THESE ADVISORIES RESIDENTS WILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF THE
AFTERNOON HEAT AND TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS.
THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE STRONGER
THAN NORMAL SEA BREEZES AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE INTERIOR.
THE GUSTY WINDS IN THE INTERIOR IN COMBINATION WITH THE HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
06/537 AM.
COOLING WILL FINALLY ARRIVE ON MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A SERIES OF WEAK TROFS MOVES
THROUGH OR AND FAR NRN CA. HGTS WILL FALL TO 592 DAM. AT THE SAME
TIME ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BOTH TO THE NORTH AND THE EAST
BECOMING STRONGLY ONSHORE IN BOTH DIRECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL RESPOND TO THIS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO XTND INTO THE VLYS. LOOK FOR SLOWER THAN NORMAL CLEARING
AND SOME WEST FACING BEACHES MAY SEE ONLY LIMITED CLEARING.
THE COMBINATION OF A DEEPER MARINE LAYER, STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW
AND FALLING HGTS WILL BRING 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF COOLING EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH NORMALS ON
TUESDAY AND THEN MOST AREAS WILL SEE BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS ON WED
AND THU. VLY TEMPS ON WED AND THU WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
PWS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER. THIS WILL
MAKE THINGS FEEL A LITTLE STICKIER THAN NORMAL AND WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE LOW CHC (10 TO 15 PERCENT) OF AFTERNOON MTN CONVECTION
GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN ANTELOPE VLY AND THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
AVIATION
06/0944Z.
AT 0820Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1100 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 28 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD & KWJF.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KBUR & KVNY WITH A 15 PERCENT CHC OF
IFR CIGS 13Z-16Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS, AND CIG HEIGHTS BY +/- 200
FT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC THAT
CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 010. VFR CONDS COULD ARRIVE ANY TIME BETWEEN
17Z AND 19Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS ONLY A 15% CHANCE OF
BKN-OVC006-010 CONDS 13Z-16Z.
MARINE
06/906 AM.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) CRITERIA INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST
WINDS LOCALLY GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS IN TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS
AROUND AND TO THE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING INTO THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS
NORTH AND WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 38-377-381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
344-345-353-375-376-378>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...RORKE/CILIBERTI
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...KL/RS/DB/COHEN/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...COHEN/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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