921
FXUS66 KLOX 070957
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
257 AM PDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
07/209 AM.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE COMMON
OVER COASTAL AREAS AND THE COASTAL VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS, HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
COASTS AND COASTAL VALLEYS. ASIDE FROM THE CHANCE OF A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
SUNDAY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
07/254 AM.
AS HAS BEEN THE STORY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS, A LARGE AND WIDE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
INCREASE FROM 593 DAM TO 596 DAM THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING GRADUAL
WARMING, WITH THE HEAT LIKELY PEAKING ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN 95 TO 108 RANGE FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS (INCLUDING THE
LOWER MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS), 90 TO 100 ACROSS THE COASTAL VALLEYS,
AND 75 TO 90 ACROSS THE COASTS/INLAND COASTS. LESS CONFIDENCE IN
THE COASTAL AREA TEMPERATURES DUE TO SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER CLOUDS - IF THE NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING CLOUDS BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE, THEN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREA MAY BE ON THE COOLER END OF THE RANGE (AND VICE
VERSA) HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE FOOTHILLS) AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS (SUCH AS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND CUYAMA VALLEY). EVEN
THROUGH THE COASTAL VALLEYS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THESE ADVISORIES,
RESIDENTS WILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF THE AFTERNOON HEAT AND TAKE
APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT, DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. THIS FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL DRAW
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY AT LEVELS ABOVE
AROUND 600 MB, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWS) OF 1.0 INCH TO
NEAR 1.25 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BORDER TODAY (WHERE IT IS
CURRENTLY PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS), WILL START TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY, WHILE WEAKENING. THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION AND
PAIR WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO BRING A 10-15% CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES TODAY, EXPANDING INTO THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
ON SATURDAY. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT DRY LIGHTNING MAY RESULT, AND MAY CAUSE FIRE STARTS, ADDING
TO THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
THE INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE HUMIDITIES
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AT LEAST FOR THE COAST AND NEAR-COASTAL
AREAS. ALONG WITH THE WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THIS WILL
TEND TO INCREASE HEAT IMPACTS DURING THE DAYTIMES AND KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN NORMAL.
ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AND PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM, INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS INCLUDING THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. THE
STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON SUNDAY, BASED ON
PROJECTED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR IN COMBINATION WITH THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT COASTAL AREAS AND SOME
OF THE COASTAL VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHT TO MORNING HOURS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. THIS PATTERN COULD BE DISRUPTED DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALOFT, WHICH COULD SLOW OR PREVENT
MARINE LAYER FORMATION.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
07/257 AM.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO FINALLY
WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DOWN INTO NORCAL. 500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL DROP TO AT LEAST 592 DAM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND MAYBE
EVEN LOWER. AT THE SAME TIME, ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BOTH TO
THE NORTH AND THE EAST BECOMING STRONGLY ONSHORE IN BOTH
DIRECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL RESPOND TO
THIS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO EXTEND INTO THE VALLEYS.
LOOK FOR SLOWER THAN NORMAL CLEARING AND SOME WEST FACING BEACHES
MAY SEE ONLY LIMITED CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF A DEEPER MARINE LAYER, STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW,
AND FALLING HEIGHTS WILL BRING 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF COOLING EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH NORMALS ON
TUESDAY AND THEN MOST AREAS WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH VALLEY TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S.
PWS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER. IN
COMBINATION WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES OFF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL A LITTLE
STICKIER THAN NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ELEVATED
MOISTURE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY KEEPING THE LOW CHANCE (10 TO
15 PERCENT) OF AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN CONVECTION GOING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST WILL PRODUCE
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN ANTELOPE VALLEY
AND THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION
07/0518Z.
AT 0418Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1100 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD & KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS, AND CIG HEIGHTS BY +/- 200
FT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. INTERMITTENT CIGS LIKELY
THROUGH EARLY MORNING (009-012). NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND
COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
07/1257 AM.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) CRITERIA INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST
WINDS LOCALLY GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS IN TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS
AROUND AND TO THE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NW
WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING, ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH
AND WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 38-377-381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
344-345-353-375-376-378>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...LUND/RORKE/LEWIS
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...LUND/DB
SYNOPSIS...KL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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